Ricky Dimon
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Sunday Night Football in Week 11 of the NFL season is an intriguing AFC showdown between the Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Chargers. It may not necessarily be a conference championship preview, but these are 2 teams that are certainly in the playoff picture. Los Angeles comes in at 6-3, while Cincinnati is without question better than its 4-6 record suggests.
Here is my Same Game Parlay for the festivities, which get underway at 8:20 pm ET on NBC. Also be sure to check out our full Bengals vs Chargers predictions.
Over 47.5 (-105)
Chase Brown to record 5+ receptions (+140)
J.K. Dobbins to record 70+ rushing yards (+154)
Parlay odds: +766
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is the entire plan here, as Cincinnati running back Chase Brown making a bunch of receptions and Los Angeles running back J.K. Dobbins racking of plenty of yards would obviously work well with the over cashing. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
Over 47.5 (-105)
A contrast of styles will be on display in this one, but the bottom line is that Cincinnati is a walking recipe for the over. The Bengals’ offense is dynamic, and Joe Burrow is playing at a level worth of MVP consideration; their defense is pretty much garbage. As a result, their games are averaging 53.2 points. The total for Sunday’s contest has climbed from 43.5 to 47.5, but that still isn’t high enough. L.A. boasts a solid pass rush, but pressure perhaps impacts Burrow less than it does any other quarterback in the league. On the other side of the ball, the Chargers’ offense is healthy and looking the best it has all season. In the last 3 weeks the Bolts have scored 26, 27 and 27 points. The Bengals are 7-3 O/U so far this season. Even though L.A. plays to the under more often than not, I think Cincinnati’s trend is the one that continues.
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Chase Brown to record 5+ receptions (+140)
Cincinnati doesn’t really have a running game. Its version of such is basically throwing dump passes to Brown. More of that should be in store for Sunday. Los Angeles is # 5 in the league in sacks (31) and #5 in passing yards per attempt allowed (6.5). It’s not easy to move the ball against them in chunks. Instead, quick passes and check-downs to RBs are generally the plan. Not too surprisingly, the Chargers have allowed the sixth-most receptions to opposing RBs at 5.2 per game. Over the last 2 weeks, Brown has been targeted 16 times and has caught 14 of those for 89 yards and a touchdown. The Burrow-to-Brown connection should once again be rocking.
J.K. Dobbins to record 70+ rushing yards (+154)
As good as the Chargers’ defense is, any team’s best defense against Burrow and company is to simply keep them off the field as long as possible. You have to control the clock and keep the game moving. Los Angeles can do that with a steady diet of Dobbins. Head coach Jim Harbaugh’s squad features a run-heavy offense, ranking #6 in the NFL in rush-play percentage and 11th in time of possession. Dobbins has exceeded the 130-yard mark twice this season and gas gained at least 85 rushing yards on 2 other occasions. The Ohio State product now goes up against a Cincy run defense that is surrendering 127.3 yards per contest. Asking Dobbins to reach the 70 mark should not be too much.
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