Ricky Dimon
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It’s no surprise that this showdown between the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins was the game of choice by the NFL to get flexed to Sunday Night Football. After all, it’s by far the biggest game of the week. Whoever wins is the champion of the AFC East, while Buffalo still has a chance to miss the playoffs entirely if it loses in Miami.
Here is my Same Game Parlay for the festivities, which kick off at 8:20 pm ET on NBC. Also be sure to check out our full Bills vs Dolphins predictions.
Dolphins ML (+126)
Josh Allen to record 300+ passing yards (+350)
Josh Allen to score a touchdown (-125)
Parlay odds: +1655
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. The latter is the entire plan here, as Josh Allen passing for a bunch of yards and also scoring a touchdown on the ground obviously go against a Miami money line bet. But even if those Allen plays cash, there is no reason why the Dolphins can’t win a high-scoring affair. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
Dolphins ML (+126)
The public seems to be hammering Buffalo, but I’m going in the other direction. There is great value on the home team on the money line well into plus odds. Sure there is some pressure on Miami given that it is at home and has been leading the AFC East basically the entire season. However, keep in mind that the Dolphins have already clinched a playoff spot; they are in even if they lose the division to the Bills. On the other hand, Josh Allen and company could miss the playoffs entirely if they fall on Sunday night and a couple of other results go against their wishes. That makes for plenty of pressure on the visiting side. Moreover, Stefon Diggs is still less than 100 percent and the defense has underachieved all season long. Recent close victories over the Patriots and the Easton Stick-led Chargers were thoroughly unspectacular. Yes, a win is a win in the NFL; but the reality is that the Bills have been just as underwhelming as the Dolphins in recent weeks. Miami won this matchup last year at home and I would not be surprised if it does the exact same thing this weekend.
Josh Allen to record 300+ passing yards (+350)
Allen has absolutely lit up the Dolphins in recent seasons. In 2022 he threw for 400 yards in Miami even though the Bills scored only 19 points and lost. Later that year he racked up 304 yards through the air as Buffalo prevailed 32-29 at home. In the playoffs he helped his team beat the Dolphins 34-31 while passing for 352 yards. Earlier this season Allen went for 320 yards even though Buffalo led the entire way and rolled 48-20. If the Bills are losing this time around (as the money line prediction requires), Allen will be inclined to air it out early and often. Despite what the odds suggest, Allen has a great chance to once again torch Miami 300+ yards.
Josh Allen to score a touchdown (-125)
Buffalo running backs rarely get used in the red zone, and that’s because Allen generally takes it himself when the offense is near the goal line. Heading into this finale the Wyoming product has rushed for 15 touchdowns. Allen has scored 4 TDs on the ground in the past 2 weeks (8 in the last 5) and has delivered at least one in 5 consecutive contests (9 of the last 10). Now he faces a Miami defense that just allowed 56 points and almost 500 total yards to the Ravens. New offensive coordinator Joe Brady has been relying on Allen’s legs – especially in the red zone – and it stands to reason that Brady will continue going in that direction on Sunday. It’s the biggest game of the season; more than ever, that’s when you want the ball in your best player’s hands.
