Ricky Dimon
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Week 9 of the 2023 NFL campaign features a marquee Sunday Night Football matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals. For better or worse, these teams have had a notable recent history and there is a good chance that this won’t be the last time we see them going head-to-head this team. Although neither Buffalo nor Cincinnati planned to have 3 losses at this point, both remain firmly in the playoff picture.
Here is my Same Game Parlay for the festivities, which kick off at 8:20 pm ET on NBC. Also be sure to check out our full Bills vs Bengals predictions.
Bengals -2.5 (-110)
Irv Smith Jr. to score a touchdown (+350)
Josh Allen Over 271.5 passing yards (-115)
Parlay odds: +1000
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Cincinnati tight end Irv Smith Jr. scoring a touchdown would obviously work well with a Bengals win and cover. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with backing Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen to rack up his fair share of passing yards. But even if he does, there is no reason why Cincy can’t take care of business. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
Bengals -2.5 (-110)
It’s hard to ignore what the Bengals did last week in San Francisco (which was wallop the 49ers 31-17). This season is starting to have the same feeling as the last one for Cincinnati. In 2022 this team tumbled into the bye week, got a little healthier and never looked back. This year the Bengals started 1-3 but have since won 3 in a row. Joe Burrow was awesome last week against a San Fran defense that is worlds away from what Buffalo is going to look like on Sunday night. Burrow has clearly recovered from a calf injury that hampered him dating back to the preseason. In the last 3 weeks he ranks second in QB rating against pressure, first in completion yards against pressure and is tied for first in touchdowns against pressure. The Bills are banged up defensively, so count on Burrow’s — and the Bengals’ — hot streak continuing.
Irv Smith Jr. to score a touchdown (+350)
Smith has not yet found the endzone this season, but he has gotten at least 4 targets in 3 of his 4 games. That includes 4 receptions on 4 targets last weekend against San Francisco. Smith is a proven red-zone threat, having scored twice in 8 games with Minnesota during the 2022 regular season before also delivering a TD in a playoff loss to the Giants. He also had 5 touchdowns with the Vikings in 2020. Buffalo’s secondary is vulnerable and I would not be shocked if Smith takes advantage.
Josh Allen Over 271.5 passing yards (-110)
Like Burrow, Allen has improved dramatically since a slow start. Allen’s woes really ended after Week 1. He has gone over this number in 4 of the last 7 games, including 320 yards or more on 3 occasions. Interceptions have been a minor problem, but the former Wyoming star continues to rack up yards and touchdowns. Allen faced Cincinnati in the playoffs last season and came close to this number with 264 yards even though he completed just 59.5 percent of his passes. I can’t see that happening again since he has been above 62 percent in every game so far this year and comes in at 71.7 percent overall. It should also be noted that the Bengals are allowing 7.8 yards per pass attempt; only 4 teams are giving up more.
