Phil Agius
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The visit of the San Francisco 49ers to the Cleveland Browns should have been one of the best matchups of NFL Week 6, but the Browns’ current problems mean it’s likely to less competitive than we might have expected.
The 49ers roll into town undefeated at 5-0 and proudly holding the #1 position in the Pickswise NFL Power Rankings, but, far from being refreshed by their bye week, the Browns have emerged from their week off in the middle of a crisis. Nevertheless, there is still a game to be played in Ohio on Sunday afternoon and I have put together a 3-leg Same Game Parlay that would bring a nice payout at +1013 odds with FanDuel Sportsbook if it cashes.
You can check out the full game preview in our Week 6 NFL picks, but now let’s take a look at our 49ers vs Browns Same Game Parlay.
49ers -9.5 (-108)
George Kittle over 3.5 receptions (+134)
Amari Cooper 50+ receiving yards (+132)
Same Game Parlay odds: +1013
San Francisco 49ers -9.5 (-108)
The 49ers have begun the season in relentless form, winning their first 5 games by margins of 23, 7, 18, 19 and 32 points. They need only to win by 10 to kick off our parlay with a winning leg, and while that would not have been an easy task if the Browns were at full strength (they were favored by only 3 points for this game when it opened), it is hard to see Cleveland making this a close-run affair in its current state.
The Browns (2-2) are set to have their third starting quarterback of the season in only their fifth game. Rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson had a baptism of fire against the Ravens after finding out only on the morning of the game that starter Deshaun Watson would be sidelined by a shoulder injury. That went about as well as you might have expected in a 28-3 loss. With Watson still not healthy even after a week off, the Browns have opted for more experience this time and are turning to PJ Walker, who started several games for the Panthers last season and has been on the Cleveland practice squad. Walker won’t have elite guard Joel Bitonio to protect him as the lineman is set to miss his first game since 2016, so however strong an effort we see from the formidable Browns defense, the 49ers are likely to be able to put some distance between the teams. The Browns’ failure to get anything going on offense had a knock-on effect against the Ravens as they could not get off the field and wore down in the second half, with an uncharacteristically poor tackling effort. That could be disastrous against Christian McCaffrey and the 49ers’ running game.
George Kittle over 3.5 receptions (+134)
I’m giving some respect to the Browns defense here by taking George Kittle’s receptions total rather than his receiving yards. Kittle needed only 3 receptions to tally 3 touchdowns and 67 receiving yards against the Cowboys last time out, but he could be even busier this week. QB Brock Purdy will need to get the ball out quickly to evade the Browns’ pass rush led by Myles Garrett, who looks set to play despite picking up an injury in the Ravens game.
The Browns have strong cornerbacks in Denzel Ward, Greg Newsome and MJ Emerson, but their linebackers can be susceptible in coverage and Baltimore’s Mark Andrews had 5 catches for 80 yards and 2 scores against them. Kittle could be in business early and often on Sunday.
Amari Cooper 50+ receiving yards (+132)
This leg isn’t a vote of confidence in the Browns offense — if anything it’s a signal that I think they will be struggling and few worthwhile options who can move the ball. No one has been able to run on the 49ers this year and the Browns running game has taken a major step back since the devastating season-ending injury to Nick Chubb. Jerome Ford is reportedly healthy again after nursing a knock early this week, but he, Kareem Hunt and Pierre Strong are all likely to struggle to make an impact.
The Browns pass-block much better than they run-block this year and they’re likely to be playing from behind a lot in this game. It would make sense if they then try to feed the receiver who has the best chance of getting open against a strong defense and that is Amari Cooper, who has averaged 64.8 yards per game this year. With Walker having had limited practice reps with the first team, it’s likely any time he had had was focused on building a relationship with the team’s #1 receiver. Cooper’s regular receiving yards line is just 40.5 with FanDuel, but pushing it to the alternate line of 50 or more takes our parlay past the 10/1 mark and provides a contrarian angle to the spread pick. The Browns could easily be held under 150 passing yards with Cooper having something approaching half that total.
Our NFL Week 6 player prop picks include a selection for this game
