Ricky Dimon
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Tom Brady returns to Foxborough as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit the New England Patriots. It is the marquee matchup of Week 4, simply because of the Brady vs Bill Belichick (and the Patriots in general) factor. It’s no surprise that the game is getting Sunday Night Football treatment. Let’s take a look at the best same game parlay option for Bucs-Pats, and also be sure to check out our picks on the side and total for all of the NFL Week 4 matchups.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -12.5 alternate spread (+160)
Chris Godwin anytime touchdown scorer (+140)
Mac Jones Over 254.5 passing yards (-114)
Parlay odds: +934
Part of the value in same game parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Chris Godwin finding the endzone would obviously work well with a Tampa win. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with betting on New England quarterback Mac Jones to throw for a bunch of yards. But even if Jones does that, there is no reason why the Bucs can’t win big. Let’s break down each of the three legs one by one.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -12.5 alternate spread (+160)
Although Brady’s new team—which he immediately led to the Super Bowl last season—is coming off a road loss to the Rams, that is of no real concern. There is no shame in losing to the Rams, and the Bucs are still a solid 2-1 to begin the season. They are tied for the league lead in scoring with Arizona, having put up 103 points through 3 outings. Brady has already thrown for 1,087 yards with 10 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Four different pass-catchers have racked up at least 138 receiving yards. Can New England’s offense come close to keeping up? Probably not. Only 6 teams have scored fewer points than the Patriots through 3 weeks. Count on Brady sticking it to his former team and Tampa Bay winning this one with room to spare.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New England Patriots
Chris Godwin anytime touchdown scorer (+140)
Death, taxes, and Chris Godwin scoring a touchdown…. Those are basically the three certainties of life. Okay, that may be a bit of an exaggeration; but you get the point. Godwin has scored a TD in 3 consecutive contests to begin the year—via reception for the first two and then on a run last weekend. He also found the endzone in each of the last 3 regular-season games of the 2020 campaign (including 2 in the finale against Atlanta). Godwin has a great connection with Brady and you know the 44-year-old signal-caller will want to pin as many TDs on the Pats as possible.
Mac Jones Over 254.5 passing yards (-114)
With Brady no longer running the show up in New England, the Cam Newton experiment is over and it’s Mac Jones time. Jones has more INTs (3) than TDs (2), but that hardly matters for that prop play. Actually, it helps. The home team is likely to be play from behind from start to finish—which we need for the alternate spread. If that happens, Jones will be airing it out early and often in his team’s comeback attempt. The former Alabama standout attempted 51 passes in last week’s 15-point loss to New Orleans, throwing for 270 yards. He went for 281 yards in the opener against Miami. Amazingly enough, Tampa Bay is dead last in the NFL in passing defense so far (338.3 yards per game allowed). All signs point to Jones amassing a huge yardage total.
Check out the rest of our same game parlays for EVERY NFL Week 4 matchup!
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