NFL Thursday Night Football Buffalo Bills vs Los Angeles Rams same game parlay at +813 odds: Gabriel Davis has a big night

Ladies and gentlemen, the NFL is back! The dog days of summer have come and gone and with fall rapidly approaching another football season is upon us. Action on the professional kicks off on Thursday night, when the defending Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams host the Buffalo Bills. Here is our same game parlay, but also be sure to check out our NFL picks for EVERY Week 1 matchup.

Over 54.5 alternate total (+120)

Dawson Knox to record 40+ receiving yards (+134)

Gabriel Davis anytime TD scorer (+155)

Parlay odds: +813

Part of the value in same game parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is the entire plan here, as Dawson Knox racking up a fair amount of receiving yards and Gabriel Davis finding the endzone at least once would obviously work well with a lot of points being scored in the game. Let’s break down each of the three legs one by one.

Over 54.5 alternate total (+120)

Both of these teams like to throw the football with alacrity. In fact, the Bills threw it at the highest rate in the entire NFL last season, and the Rams were not far behind in 7th (in neutral-game situations). Former Buffalo offensive coordinator Brian Daboll is now the head coach of the Giants, but the philosophy should not change much under Ken Dorsey. If anything, Josh Allen may sling it around to an even greater extent in 2022 now that Gabriel Davis has emerged as a bona fide WR2 alongside Stefon Diggs. The Bills averaged 28.4 points per game in 2021, and there is no reason to think they will slow down this year.

Meanwhile, each side is dealing with some holes on defense. The Rams lost linebacker Von Miller (ironically to the Bills!), while the Bills are without cornerback Tre’Davious White. Although L.A.’s offensive line could be a bit shaky in the early stages of 2022 following a couple of offseason departures, Buffalo’s interior defensive line may be one of its weaknesses and probably won’t be able to take advantage. All in all, these are two explosive offenses that should be able to put up a lot of points.

Be sure to check out our full Buffalo Bills vs Los Angeles Rams predictions

Dawson Knox to record 40+ receiving yards (+134)

Knox is coming off the best season of his career, scoring nine touchdowns and racking up 587 yards on 49 receptions (71 targets). He exceeded this number seven times in 2021, including in the season opener against Pittsburgh and also in a playoff victory over New England (89 yards and two touchdowns). The Bills are now facing a Rams secondary that is young and relatively inexperienced.

L.A.’s defense as a whole may not be a well-oiled machine in Week 1 (the same can be said for a lot of teams). It is also a defense that uses Vic Fangio’s style of two deep safeties in hopes of limiting explosive plays. That won’t impact Knox, whose average depth of target (aDOT) in 2021 was 7.2 yards. He thrives on short and intermediate routes that should work nicely against Buffalo. It is also worth noting that the Rams allowed the 11th-most receptions to opposing tight ends last year.

Don’t miss Prop Holliday’s three best player props for Bills vs Rams

Gabriel Davis anytime TD scorer (+155)

This matchup should set up nicely for Davis. Los Angeles has one star player in the secondary in Jalen Ramsey, who will try to put the clamps down on Diggs. The rest of the defensive backfield is unspectacular, so both Davis and Knox alike should be able to take advantage. It should also be noted that Davis has to be playing with a ton of confidence – and Allen has to have a ton of confidence in his WR2. Davis scored four touchdowns in the last five regular-season games in 2021 and then went crazy in the playoffs, with 5 TDs in two contests as part of a 201-yard eruption against Kansas City. Count on him picking up right where he left off.

We’ve got our best touchdown scorer bets for Bills vs Rams tonight