Ricky Dimon
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We’re on to Week 2 in the NFL, and to say that Week 1 went well for Pickswise Nation would be a gross understatement. We went 4-0 on 3-star best bets, cashed a +612 3-team parlay and hit 2 same game parlays. On top of that, we went 13-3 with our spread picks!
To start Week 2 we are getting back on the same game parlay train, this one for a huge AFC West battle between the Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs on Thursday Night Football. With kickoff set for 8:15 pm ET on Amazon Prime Video, it’s time to forecast the action.
Here is our SGP, and also be sure to check out our full Chargers vs Chiefs picks on the side and total in addition to all of our NFL Picks.
Kansas City Chiefs -5.5 alternate spread (+120)
Travis Kelce anytime touchdown scorer (-145)
Justin Herbert to throw for 300+ yards (+120)
Justin Herbert to throw 2+ touchdown passes (-265)
Parlay odds: +750
Part of the value in same game parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Travis Kelce finding the endzone at least once would obviously work well with a big win for Kansas City. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with backing Justin Herbert to be productive, but even if he is there is no reason why the Chiefs can’t take care of business. Let’s break down each of the four legs one by one.
Kansas City Chiefs -5.5 alternate spread (+120)
A road date with Arizona wasn’t thought to be the easiest opener for Kansas City, but the visitors raced to a 14-0 advantage by the end of the first quarter, led by as many as 30 at one point and coasted to a 44-21 victory. Patrick Mahomes looked like the MVP version of himself, completing 30 of 39 passes for 360 yards and 5 touchdowns. Los Angeles is also 1-0, but a 24-19 victory over Las Vegas was unspectacular. It should also be noted that Keenan Allen (hamstring) is expected to be sidelined, and even with Allen on the field, it would be hard for the Chargers to keep up with the high-powered Chiefs. I am willing to play the line at anything lower than the key numbers of 6 and 7.
Don’t miss our Chargers vs Chiefs best bets from our expert NFL handicapper
Travis Kelce anytime touchdown scorer (-145)
Kelce has scored double-digit touchdowns in 3 of the last 4 seasons and early returns suggest he is on his way to doing the same this year. In the Week 1 blowout of the Cardinals, Kelce was up to his usual tricks to the tune of 8 receptions for 121 yards and 1 TD. The Chargers were dead last in allowing fantasy points to tight ends during the 2021 campaign, mainly because in 2 games against Kelce they saw him go for 295 yards and 2 touchdowns. As usual, this is a great matchup for the best tight end in football.
We have our best touchdown scorer bets for Chargers vs Chiefs
Justin Herbert to throw for 300+ yards (+120)
Tailing Herbert props really doesn’t conflict too much with a Chiefs pick because if the Chargers are playing from behind it means Herbert is going to be airing it out. In Week 1 against Las Vegas, Los Angeles ran almost as many running plays (31) as passing plays (34) because it never trailed and led basically the entire way. That’s an unusually small pass-to-run ration for the Chargers, but Herbert still threw for 279 yards. The former Oregon star reached the 300-yard mark 9 times in 2021 and on 7 of those occasions he racked up at least 336 yards. Kansas City was 27th in the NFL against the pass last season, so all signs point to Herbert putting up sizable numbers on Thursday.
Don’t forget to tail Prop Holliday’s three best player props for Chargers vs Chiefs
Justin Herbert to throw 2+ touchdown passes (-265)
The more yards for which Herbert throws, the more times Los Angeles should find itself in the red zone. Asking Herbert to capitalize only twice should be very safe (as the -265 odds suggest). He tossed 3 touchdown passes in Week 1 and pinned multiple scores on the Chiefs in each of the 2 head-to-head matchups last year (6 in total).
Get our Chargers vs Chiefs best bets from our expert NFL handicapper
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