Ricky Dimon
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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be trying to stay within striking distance of the No. 1 seed in the NFC when they visit the New York Jets on Sunday afternoon. Tampa Bay has won five of six and is just one game back of the Green Bay Packers. Let’s take a look at the best same game parlay option for Bucs vs Jets, and also be sure to check out our full game preview for picks on the side and total.
Buccaneers -16.5 alternate spread (+130)
Ronald Jones II to rush for 100+ passing yards (+280)
Ronald Jones II to score a touchdown (-155)
Parlay odds: +615
Part of the value in same game parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is the entire plan here, as Ronald Jones II rushing for 100 yards and scoring a touchdown would obviously work well with a big win for Tampa Bay. Let’s break down each of the three legs one by one.
Buccaneers -16.5 alternate spread (+130)
Tampa Bay bounced back nicely from a loss to New Orleans by destroying Carolina 32-6 last weekend. This is basically the same stretch of the season during which the Bucs heated up in 2020 and they of course went on to win the Super Bowl. Doing the same won’t be easy with Chris Godwin, Leonard Fournette, and Mike Evans all sidelined, but Antonio Brown got back at just the right time and caught 10 passes for 101 yards against the Panthers. Even without Fournette, Tampa Bay should be able to run all over New York with Ronald Jones II and Ke’Shawn Vaughn. The Jets are saddled with one of the worst defenses in the league.
New York has a mirror-image 4-11 record to Tampa Bay’s 11-4 mark. The Jets’ offense has also been dreadful, in part because Zach Wilson has been injured at times and when he has been on the field he has been picked off 11 times in 11 games. Tampa Bay ranks third in the league against the run, which means Wilson’s hand will be forced in this matchup. That isn’t good news for the home team. The Bucs are 5-1 ATS in their last six overall and 5-1 ATS in their last six as favorites. New York is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 overall, 1-4 ATS in its last five at home, and 4-11 ATS in its last 15 as an underdog. Tampa Bay should win this in complete blowout fashion.
Ronald Jones II to rush for 100+ yards (+280)
With Fournette on injured reserve, Jones is RB1 in Tampa Bay. Vaughn will get some of the carries, but it’s Jones who will shoulder the load. RJ2 handled those duties nicely last Sunday, when he rushed 20 times for 65 yards and a touchdown during the rout of Carolina. He also caught 2 of 3 targets for 16 yards. Jones and the Bucs now have an even more favorable matchup against the atrocious Jets. New York is 30th in the league against the run.
Ronald Jones II to score a touchdown (-155)
As bad are the Jets are in overall run defense, they are even worse at allowing touchdowns on the ground (27 to be exact). In fact, no team in the entire NFL has surrendered more such scores and dead last in rushing TDs allowed. A big day for Jones obviously correlates perfectly with a Bucs blowout, as they will mostly be content to keep the ball on the ground with a huge lead in hand. I actually wouldn’t be surprised if Jones finds the endzone multiple times.
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