Ricky Dimon
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Sunday of Week 2 is upon us, and it will culminate in the form of a primetime showdown in the NFC North between the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers will be eager to turn things around on the heels of a season-opening loss to Minnesota, while the Bears are hoping to start 2-0 following their victory over San Francisco.
Here is our SGP, and also be sure to check out our full Bears-Packers picks on the side and total in addition to all of our NFL Picks.
Green Bay Packers -9.5 (-110)
Under 41.5 (-110)
Aaron Jones to score a touchdown (-120)
Part of the value in same game parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. Backing Aaron Jones to score a touchdown does some of both. It works well with Green Bay winning and covering, but it conflicts with an over play. Overall, this is a same game parlay that appears to have plenty of value.
Green Bay Packers -9.5 (-110)
Green Bay was outclassed in Minnesota en route to their second straight season-opening loss, but that was clearly a bad spot for them. The Vikings were healthy and had the benefit of an offense that had years of continuity behind it, along with a defense that was buoyed by a frenzied home crowd in Minnesota. The Packers faced similarly adversity a year ago, as they were blown out by the Saints 38-3 in Week 1. Green Bay then returned home and destroyed a divisional opponent — Detroit — by 18 points.
It’s true that the Bears beat the 49ers in Week 1, but that game was at home and played in extremely sloppy conditions. It was still one of the first career starts for Trey Lance and his inexperience certainly showed in the loss. Chicago is flying high following that upset win, and this is a perfect spot to fade a team that doesn’t have a high ceiling. Despite their slow start offensively, the Packers’ defense played well in the second half and Rodgers began to develop some familiarity with his inexperienced wide receivers. Back the Pack.
Under 41.5 (-110)
As we saw a week ago, the Packers still have some clear and obvious things to work out as it pertains to their passing game. And while I expect Rodgers to have success at home, Green Bay will likely start this game by looking to establish Jones and AJ Dillon on the ground. Once the Bears have to respect the Packers at the line of scrimmage, then the passing game should open up for Rodgers to find Randall Cobb, Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs on the outside.
On the other side of the ball, the Packers’ secondary was exploited by Minnesota but they shouldn’t have the same concerns with Justin Fields and the Bears meager passing attack. Chicago’s one big passing play a week ago was a broken play, and it was clear that the Bears’ receiving corps is one of the worst in the league — much like it was projected to be. This is still a bad offense.
Aaron Jones to score a touchdown (-120)
Jones should be a key focal point in the Packers’ offense. With Rodgers still adjusting to his new receiving corps, look for Jones to play the majority of snaps in the goal line. He is a much more significant threat to catch passes out of the backfield than Dillon, which gives Jones more value. Jones had 10 touchdowns a season ago (including 6 via receptions) even though Dillon also got a lot of work in the red zone. There should be plenty of looks to go around against a vulnerable Bears defense, so don’t be surprised at all if he finds himself in the endzone.
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