Ricky Dimon
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We are more than making up for no Thursday Night Football during Week 13 with a double-header on Monday and even a Tuesday offering between the Dallas Cowboys and Baltimore Ravens. Yes, coronavirus issues have wreaked havoc on the Ravens and they will go from playing on Wednesday in Week 12 to Tuesday this time around. They need a win in the worst way, too, while the Cowboys also remain alive in the playoff picture despite being 3-8.
Tuesday’s festivities will be worth watching no matter what, but you can add a little bit more spice to the matchup with a same-game parlay. Let’s take a look at the best such option for Dallas vs. Baltimore, and be sure to check out our full preview of the game for picks on the side and total. We came within half a point of cashing our Washington/Pittsburgh same game parlay at +4420, and we’re hoping the luck swings in our favor for this one.
Cowboys +10.5 alternate spread (-130)
Alternate total Under 41.5 (+140)
Andy Dalton Under 225.5 passing yards (-110)
Ezekiel Elliott anytime touchdown scorer (+125)
Parlay odds: +1540
The value of same-game parlays, of course, is that all of their components can be correlated if you so choose. That’s part the plan for this particularly play, as we feel good about Dallas keeping this contest within single-digits. The lower the score, the better chance the Cowboys have of making it competitive. I also don’t see Andy Dalton putting up any significant numbers, so even if Ezekiel Elliott finds the endzone once there is no reason why this game can’t stay under the alternate total.
Cowboys +10.5 alternate spread (-130)
To say it’s been a weird stretch for the Ravens would be a gross understatement. Their Week 12 showdown against the Steelers was postponed about a million times before finally being played on Wednesday afternoon. Now they have five days off before hosting Dallas (we just saw what happened to Pittsburgh on short rest). Lamar Jackson, Mark Ingram, and JK Dobbins should be back for this one after missing the 19-14 loss to Pittsburgh because of positive coronavirus tests. However, ever with those guys on the field Baltimore’s offense had been struggling. Head coach John Harbaugh’s team has lost three in a row and is 1-4 in its past five outings. I think the Cowboys can cover a +8.5 spread, but tease it up to double-digits for the purpose of this parlay just to be safe.
Alternate total Under 41.5 (+140)
While we are decreasing this parlay’s payout just a bit by teasing the spread up to +10.5, we can more than make up for that by driving the total down from 45 to 41.5. Dallas is not going to win this one—or keep it close—with some kind of aerial onslaught by Dalton. The visitors are going to do it by controlling the clock with Elliott and hopefully containing a rusty opposing quarterback. It’s also going to be cold and windy on Tuesday in Baltimore, which is not exactly conducive to scoring.
Andy Dalton Under 225.5 passing yards (-110)
Dalton has exceeded this quota only once in 2020. His highest total is 266 yards and in two appearances since returning from injury he has thrown for 203 and 215 yards. There is no reason to think that something is suddenly going to change against a Baltimore defense that is 10th in the NFL against the pass and an especially impressive second in yards per pass attempt allowed. Also, we expect Dallas to be competitive and if that’s the case then Dalton won’t have to throw a ton of passes in the second half.
Ezekiel Elliott anytime touchdown scorer (+125)
Some the Cowboys’ best defense is going to be keeping Jackson and company off the field. They can do that with a steady diet of Elliott, who should get an even greater extent of the work near the goal-line. Dalton has thrown at least one interception in each of his last four games (five in total during this stretch), so the visitors won’t want him making a mistake when they are close to putting points on the board. Elliott has scored seven touchdowns this year and he should be able to add an eighth.
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