Ricky Dimon
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Well, it looks like this infamous Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers game is actually going to happen. First it was on Thanksgiving, then it was on Sunday, then it was on Tuesday, and now it will be none other than Wednesday Afternoon Football. I suppose there’s still time for it to get axed again, but let’s think positively and assume the best.
To spice up this intriguing edition of WAF, why not toss in a same-game parlay? Week 12 in the NFL is ending two days later than we all expected, and why not end it in style? Let’s take a look at the best SGP value play for this AFC North showdown, and be sure to check out our full preview of the game for picks on the side and total.
Steelers -10 point spread (-115)
Ben Roethlisberger Over 263.5 passing yards (-110)
Chase Claypool Over 49.5 receiving yards (-110)
Eric Ebron anytime touchdown scorer (+200)
Parlay odds: +1324
The value of same-game parlays, of course, is that all of their components can be correlated if you so choose. That’s the plan for this particular play, as we feel good about the Steelers taking care of business against a Baltimore squad that has obviously been dealing with all kinds of issues. And if they do, Ben Roethlisberger and company will likely have a big day. That’s why we are taking Pittsburgh minus the touchdown and field goal, going with the over on yardages for Big Ben and Chase Claypool, and calling for Eric Ebron to get his way into the endzone.
Steelers -10 point spread (-115)
It looks like the Ravens will have JK Dobbins and Mark Ingram at their disposal thanks to postponements (those two running backs would have been sidelined by COVID-19 if not), but Lamar Jackson is out for the same reason. That means Robert Griffin III will be under center, and it’s hard to feel good about his chances against Pittsburgh’s defense. And even with Jackson, it’s not like the Ravens have been great of late. They are 1-3 in their last four games, including a home loss to the Steelers and a setback against New England. The Steelers, on the other hand, are 10-0 following 27-3 rout of Jacksonville in Week 11. They have won three of their last six contests by at least 24 points.
Ben Roethlisberger Over 263.5 passing yards (-110)
Roethlisberger threw for only 182 yards in the previous matchup with Baltimore, but his next three yardage totals were 306, 333, and 267. He has tossed 11 touchdowns compared to only one interception over the past four outings, so his confidence is riding high going into this one. With James Conner sidelined, Pittsburgh may have to do most of its damage through the air. Benny Snell Jr. is a capable RB1, but he isn’t Conner.
Chase Claypool Over 49.5 receiving yards (-110)
Tennessee’s Corey Davis had his way with the Baltimore secondary in Week 11 and Claypool can certainly do the same. Ten games into his NFL career, the former Notre Dame standout has 39 catches on 65 targets for 559 yards and eight TDs. He has exceeded Wednesday’s quota (49.5) in each of the last three games. JuJu Smith-Schuster is slightly banged up with a foot injury, which only enhances Claypool’s value.
Eric Ebron anytime touchdown scorer (+200)
Ebron isn’t going to set the stat sheet on fire with a ton of yards, but he always has touchdown potential. The veteran tight end has found the endzone four times this year, including in three in the last four outings. For what it’s worth, Ebron has also gained at least 36 receiving yards in four of the past five games. Roethlisberger has plenty of confidence in one of his favorite red-zone targets.
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