Ricky Dimon
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Week 2 of the NFL season is underway. We have already had one division rivalry game, with the Football Team scraping past the Giants on Thursday Night Football. Five more divisional games take place on Sunday and Monday, including the entire AFC East and NFC South. One such showdown pits the Atlanta Falcons against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Let’s take a look at the best same game parlay option for Falcons-Bucs, and also be sure to check out our full game preview for picks on the side and total.
Atlanta Falcons +14.5 alternate spread (-140)
Matt Ryan over 283.5 passing yards (-114)
Calvin Ridley over 85.5 receiving yards (-122)
Rob Gronkowski to score a touchdown (+155)
Parlay odds: +1023
Part of the value in same game parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Matt Ryan and Calvin Ridley delivering big days at the office would obviously work well with Atlanta keeping this within 2 touchdowns. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout the parlay. That is the case with tipping Rob Gronkowski to find the endzone, but even if he does there is no reason why this has to be an absolute blowout. Let’s break down each of the 4 legs one by one.
Atlanta Falcons +14.5 alternate spread (-140)
The Bucs earned a season-opening victory over Dallas last Thursday night, but they certainly didn’t cover the spread as a last-second field goal was required for them to prevail 31-29. Tom Brady threw 2 interceptions as part of 4 total turnovers (Chris Godwin and Ronald Jones II also lost fumbles). Much was made of the fact that Tampa Bay brought back all of its starters from an already stellar defense, but Dak Prescott completed 42 of 58 passes for 403 yards with 3 TDs. It is true that the Bucs’ run defense dominated, but the Falcons won’t mind that. Atlanta’s offense still goes through Ryan and Ridley. This team has rarely been committed to running the ball and nothing figures to change under Arthur Smith now that the former Tennessee offensive coordinator no longer has Derrick Henry at his disposal. The bottom line is I’m not giving 2 touchdowns in a division rivalry game this early in the season.
Matt Ryan over 283.5 passing yards (-114)
The Falcons aren’t going to be able to run the ball with Mike Davis behind a spotty offensive line. But they should be able to pass it — and they will have to if they are going to keep this within 14 points. So there is no risk in taking the over on Ryan’s passing yards if you are also grabbing Atlanta at +14.5. Ryan averaged more than 300 passing yards in 2 outings against Tampa Bay last season, including one 356-yard performance. He attempted at least 44 passes in both contests, and more of the same can be expected on Sunday.
Calvin Ridley over 85.5 receiving yards (-122)
If Ryan is throwing for at least 284 yards, you can be sure that at least 86 of them are going to Ridley. So this is another no-risk situation. In 2 games against the Bucs in 2020, the former Alabama standout was targeted by Ryan 26 times. Ridley caught 18 of those balls and turned them into 215 yards and a touchdown.
Rob Gronkowski to score a touchdown (+155)
Although this may not be an absolute shootout, it’s also not going to be a defensive struggle. The Falcons can — and will— give up a fair share of touchdowns and still stay within the necessary 2-TD margin for this parlay to cash. At least 1 of those TDs could be contributed by Gronkowski. The veteran tight end could not have got off to a better start in 2021, as he scored twice against Dallas. Atlanta’s pass-rush is awful and its secondary is mediocre at best, so Gronkowski producing another touchdown at +155 presents great value.
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