NFL Parlays

The Detroit Lions will be looking to solidify their new status as Super Bowl favorites when they visit the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday afternoon. That’s right; the Detroit Lions are favored to win the Super Bowl. They assumed the top spot for the first time this season — and first time in franchise history — following this past week’s 52-6 humiliation of the Jacksonville Jaguars that coincided with the Kansas City Chiefs’ first loss. And it’s hard to argue with the odds. Detroit is an absolute wagon from an offensive standpoint. Jared Goff bounced back from his interception barrage in Week 10 by torching Jacksonville for 412 yards and 4 touchdowns on 25-of-29 passing. Amon-Ra St. Brown (2), David Montgomery (2) and Jahmyr Gibbs (1) scored at least 1 touchdown in the same game for the 8th time in their careers — already a record for 3 teammates in the history of the NFL.

Indianapolis +3.5 against the New York Jets was a 3-star best bet winner for me in Week 11, but I’m prepared to fade the Colts this time. After all, facing the Lions is the most opposite extreme you can possibly get compared to facing the Jets. Indy squandered all of a 13-0 lead over the Jets before recovering late, so that really doesn’t inspire much confidence. Jonathan Taylor averaging just 2.4 yards per carry in that game also isn’t encouraging. What’s even more worrying is that the Colts rank 26th in the league against the pass and 25th in opponents’ yards per pass attempt. How do you think they are going to stop Goff, St. Brown and the rest of the gang? I would be more than happy to play this at -7.5, which you can get at plus money (+100) at time of publishing. However, at less than a touchdown (and PAT) it evokes max confidence. The Lions should continue to roll.

Lions vs Colts prediction: Lions -6.5 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to -7.5 (+100).

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We have a classic rivalry showdown here in the NFC East this week as the Washington Commanders get ready to host the Dallas Cowboys. A couple years ago it would have sounded crazy to say the Commanders would be one of the toasts of the league while the Cowboys would be a laughingstock, but that’s where we’re at. Dallas is in free-fall in the wake of Dak Prescott’s injury and it is coming off a blowout loss at home to the Texans.

I think there is value in buying low on the Cowboys. We are getting them at their absolute rock-bottom price in the market after the spanking on national TV at the hands of Houston that everyone saw, but it’s important not to overreact. This is a division game that’s going to be hard-fought, and getting double-digits is too good of an opportunity to pass up. I also just think Washington is a bit overrated. The Commanders are 3-3 in their last 6, and that figure gets worse when you dig into it. Their 3 wins in that span? They have come against the Giants, Panthers and Bears. New York and Carolina might be the 2 worst teams in the league and Chicago hasn’t looked much better of late. And even the Bears they only beat on a last-second, walk-off Hail Mary.

Jayden Daniels has quietly come back down to Earth following his red-hot start, and over his last 2 games he has just 1 touchdown while averaging fewer than 6 yards per attempt. Even against the G-Men, the Commanders only managed to win by 5 in a game that came down to the wire after they almost choked to Daniel Jones. As such, I don’t see any reason to feel good about laying double-digits with them on Sunday. The Cowboys have also played much better on the road this year; they are 0-5 at home but 3-2 on the road.

Cowboys vs Commanders prediction: Cowboys +10 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Texans picked up a statement win in Week 11. Monday Night Football featured an in-state rivalry between the Texans and Cowboys that didn’t stay competitive for long. The game became a talent show for Joe Mixon, who finished with over 100 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns. His supporting cast of Nico Collins and Tank Dell didn’t need to do much since the game got out of hand by the second half. Houston’s dangerous duo will have a more difficult matchup in Week 12 against a Titans secondary that has allowed the fewest passing yards per game this season. However, Sam Darnold proved that you can still have success against the Titans’ defense as long as you spread the wealth. The Vikings beat the Titans by 10 last week and it was because Darnold completed a pass to 9 different receivers and took care of the ball. That’s likely going to be the game plan for CJ Stroud: utilize his talented group of receivers and don’t just rely on Collins.

The Tennessee offense has been a problem this season. In their last 6 games, the Titans have scored 13, 17, 20, 14, 10 and 17 points. The only time they reached 20 points has an asterisk next to it since it took them until overtime to reach that number. Regardless, you can see the trend. And it won’t get any easier for Will Levis on Sunday since the Texans are allowing the 6th-fewest passing yards per game this season. Houston limited the Cowboys to just 10 points in Week 11 and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Titans finish with a similar score. I’m envisioning a score ending around 30-14 in favor of the Texans, so back the home team to cover the spread.

Titans vs Texans prediction: Texans -8.0 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -8.5.

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Bo Nix has shot up the rookie rankings in the last few weeks. Heisman winner Jayden Daniels was the talk of the rookie class in the first month or so, but Nix’s overall consistency is starting to get him recognized. He’s thrown for 1,029 yards, 9 touchdowns and just 1 interception in the last 4 weeks and gets a fortunate matchup against a terrible Raiders defense in Week 12. However, this won’t be the first time Nix has faced Las Vegas. Denver faced the Raiders back in Week 5 and the game turned one-sided very quickly. Nix threw for 206 yards and 2 touchdowns while rushing for another touchdown as the Broncos won 34-18. Since that loss, the Raiders are 0-5 and have lost by 19, 5, 7, 17 and 15 points. These teams are moving in opposite directions.

There are several different problems with the Raiders at the moment. Their quarterback situation is concerning, they lack offensive weapons since they traded away Davante Adams and their defense is allowing the 4th-most points per game. Las Vegas has allowed 34, 41, 27, 20, 32 and 34 points in the last 6 weeks. Expect Nix to take advantage of a sinking Raiders team and win by double digits.

This is a great buy-low spot for the 49ers. San Francisco got Christian McCaffrey back 2 weeks ago and people expected him to be a catalyst of change for the Niners. But the Niners are 1-1 with CMC and their win came from a game-winning field goal against a Bucs squad without Mike Evans or Chris Godwin. I wasn’t too surprised to see them as underdogs for Week 12 in Green Bay considering their recent performances. With that said, the 49ers have still been playing well on offense. Brock Purdy has thrown for over 500 yards and 3 touchdowns in the last 2 weeks, Jauan Jennings has stepped into the role of an elite receiver, and CMC ran for 79 yards last week. It’s on the defense to step up and limit unnecessary penalties.

I’ll be honest — I’ve been disappointed in the Packers lately. That might sound crazy since Green Bay has won 5 of their last 6 games but hear me out. They barely beat a sinking Jags team 3 weeks ago, their offense was completely shut down by the Lions 2 weeks ago and they only beat the Bears last week because they blocked a game-winning field goal. Jordan Love has made a lot of mistakes lately and I think the Niners can capitalize on that and win this game by a field goal or more.

The Eagles might be the hottest team in the NFL right now. Philly is on a 6-0 run with wins over the Commanders, Cowboys, Jaguars, Bengals, Giants and Browns. The wins haven’t been small either, considering the Eagles scored at least 26 points in 5 of those games. The offense is finally healthy and is looking incredibly dangerous right now with AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert as Jalen Hurts’ top options with Offensive Player of the Year frontrunner Saquon Barkley in the backfield. Philly will take on a Rams defense that has allowed the 11th-most points per game this season and has struggled in the secondary. L.A. just surrendered 282 yards and 2 touchdowns to Drake Maye and the Patriots last week.

These teams might go punch-for-punch on offense since the Rams have just as many elite weapons. Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp might be the best wide receiver duo in football right now and Kyren Williams has been a more than serviceable back. Plus, Matthew Stafford has turned back the clock this season. The 36-year-old has thrown 10 total touchdowns and at least 275 passing yards in each game in the last 4 weeks. However, this will be his toughest test yet. The new and improved Philly secondary is allowing the 2nd-fewest passing yards per game this season. And the Rams won’t have too much success if they turn to Williams on the ground since the Eagles’ defensive line has allowed the 7th-fewest rushing yards per game. I’m taking Philadelphia to win this one by at least a field goal to wrap up my NFL parlay picks.