Phil Agius
Show Bio
We made it folks! The NFL regular season is over and you will find below the final 32-team Pickswise NFL Power Rankings of the season.
Before we start, go ahead and predict which are the two playoff teams that didn’t make the top 14 in our rankings, and which eliminated teams are in there instead.
This week we didn’t take much note of teams losing if they were playing their backups, but we do have a couple of major adjustments in the final week.
You can check out our NFL playoff predictions and look at the NFL odds any time you like, but now let’s get to this week’s rankings.
Pickswise NFL Power Rankings after Week 18
1 (-) Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens retain the #1 spot they have held since whacking the 49ers in Week 16. They remain only second in the FanDuel’s Super Bowl betting, but their odds have come in again to +320 from +350 last week.
2 (-) San Francisco 49ers
The Niners also get to rest this week, as most of their starters did while their backups lost 21-20 to the Rams and Carson Wentz added one to his NFL career wins tally. Their Super Bowl odds have edged up from +210 to +220.
3 (-) Buffalo Bills
Our bold move to have the Bills in our top 3 even when they were still in danger of missing the playoffs over the last few weeks has paid off as they secured the second seed in the AFC by winning in Miami. They have won 5 in a row now and FanDuel also has them third in their list now (you heard it here first!) at +650 odds from +1100 last week.
4 (up 1) Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys move up after securing the NFC #2 seed that the freefalling Eagles left lying on the floor for them to pick up. The Cowboys are 8-0 at home this season but they’re facing an improving team in the Packers this week.
5 (up 1) Detroit Lions
The Lions remain on the tail of the Cowboys even though they couldn’t quite catch them but the oddsmakers are not convinced about their chances and they are +2200 to win the Super Bowl. They also have a mighty tricky first game at home to the red-hot Rams.
6 (up 1) Cleveland Browns
As noted above, we’re not going to judge the Browns on their season-ending 31-14 loss to the Bengals, when Jeff Driskel became their fifth starting quarterback as they had surrendered that contest before they got on the plane. They kick off the playoffs with Saturday’s game in Houston, hoping to repeat their recent win at NRG Stadium when Amari Cooper had a team-record 265 receiving yards. Some reinforcements from their long injury list are expected this week, but kicker Dustin Hopkins looks set to miss the game.
7 (down 3) Miami Dolphins
Talking of injuries, the Dolphins are getting ravaged by them, particularly on defense at exactly the wrong time. Their defeat by the Bills has not only dropped them from the second to the sixth seed in the AFC, it also sends them on the road to play the Chiefs in the kind of temperatures that have never been seen in Miami. We have the potential for a Tyreek Hill revenge game, of course, but he will need to be able to feel his fingers to catch the ball on his return to Arrowhead.
8 (-) Los Angeles Rams
The Rams have now won 7 of their last 8 games and Sean McVay’s squad are not out of it at +5000 odds to win a second Super Bowl in 3 seasons.
9 (up 1) Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs ended up with more wins on the road than at home as their backups beat the Chargers this week and they’re no doubt happy to be facing the beaten-up Dolphins rather than their old enemies the Bills this week. The champions have +1000 odds to retain their title but they may have to rely on their defense and running game to do it, which would have been a crazy thing to read a couple of years ago.
10 (down 1) Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles’ slide continues and it’s now 5 losses in their last 6 games with their Super Bowl odds taking a further hit from +1200 to +1700. They’ve gone from being on track to have homefield advantage throughout the playoffs to going on the road in the wild-card round, but they get something of a break as they’re facing the Bucs, who have struggled whenever they have met strong teams this season. The Eagles may no longer qualify for that description, though, and Jalen Hurts and AJ Brown also picked up injuries last week.
11 (up 11) Green Bay Packers
Here’s the first of those major adjustments. The Packers had been lurking near the bottom of a large group of mid-pack teams, but they still seem to be improving and have jumped to the front of the group with their impressive win over the Bears. They are only 13th of 14 in FanDuel’s Super Bowl betting due to their tough trip to Dallas this week.
12 (-) Cincinnati Bengals
Here’s the first of our non-qualifiers in the top 14. The Bengals began the season as AFC North favorites but ended the year in last place. Even so, the whole division had a winning record and they’d have had a good chance of making the playoffs if they played in either division that ends in South, for example.
13 (up 5) Houston Texans
The Texans completed an excellent first season under head coach DeMeco Ryans, bouncing back from last season’s 3-13-1 record to make the playoffs. Having two of the top three picks in the draft clearly helped. They are underdogs at home to the Browns on Saturday after their recent loss to that team, but they have CJ Stroud available this time around and have had a couple of weeks to think of ways to cover Amari Cooper and David Njoku.
14 (up 3) New Orleans Saints
The Saints become the second non-playoff team to make our top 14. They maybe got an extra boost for providing some entertainment by scoring a touchdown out of a victory formation on the final play against the Falcons and making Arthur Smith really mad.
15 (up 4) Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers took every break that came their way to make the playoffs and they didn’t complain about facing the Ravens’ backups rather than their starters. They also won’t complain that their game in Buffalo this week looks set to be played in a winter storm either. Their luck ran out when TJ Watt was injured, though, and they are the only double-digit underdogs on the wild-card slate.
16 (down 1) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Yes, they’re in the playoffs but the Bucs can’t expect to be rewarded for failing to score a touchdown against the worst team in the NFL in a game they absolutely had to win. They are the lowest-ranked team of the 14 qualifiers, but they get a break by drawing the mid-meltdown Eagles this week.
17 (down 1) Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks can’t expect much credit either as they only beat the eliminated Cardinals thanks to a late field-goal miss by Arizona (insert your conspiracy theory here). It now looks like they might have been better off tanking properly this season than plodding around in the middle of the league with Geno Smith and hampering their own chances of rearming.
18 (down 4) Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars imploded in spectacular fashion this season, going from contenders for the AFC #1 seed in mid-season to missing the playoffs entirely after losing to an eliminated team on the final day. You have to hope for Trevor Lawrence’s sake that lingering injuries played a part in some of his errant throws with the game on the line.
19 (up 1) Indianapolis Colts
The Colts were another team to blow it, dropping a crucial pass on 4th and 1 inside the red zone near the end of their loss to the Texans. If Anthony Richardson comes back fully healthy next season that offense has plenty of weapons.
20 (up 1) Arizona Cardinals
Talking of teams with potential next season, the Cardinals did a great job of showing improvement in the second half of the year while not losing their shot at a high draft pick. They would surely love it if the first 3 picks are spent on quarterbacks and they can pounce for Marvin Harrison Jr. at #4.
21 (up 2) Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders finished at a respectable 8-9 after winning 3 of their last 4 games as interim head coach Antonio Pierce staked his claim to keep the job.
22 (down 9) Chicago Bears
The Bears may look harshly treated here but they had climbed a little too far in recent weeks. Change is coming in Chicago with the 1st and 9th picks in the draft, so let’s see what they look like on the other side.
23 (down 12) Denver Broncos
Here were have another team kicked out from mixing it with the playoff contenders. The Broncos lost 3 of their last 4 to finish with a losing record.
24 (up 1) New York Giants
The Giants will have signed off with a smile after beating the Eagles in Week 18, getting revenge for when they became the only team to lose to Philly since November in their Christmas meeting.
25 (up 3) Tennessee Titans
The Titans provided something of a surprise when they fired Mike Vrabel this week even after he inspired the team to keep AFC South rivals the Jaguars out of the playoffs with a last-day win.
26 (-) Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings have some big decisions to make in the off-season, particularly with regard to what they want to do at quarterback but whoever it is next season will have plenty of weapons that will hopefully be healthy next time.
27 (-) Atlanta Falcons
Arthur Smith is gone, so the Falcons immediately become candidates to show major improvement next season if all their young offensive talent is used properly.
28 (up 2) Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers are nominated along with the Jaguars and Eagles as most disappointing team of the season, losing 8 of their last 9 games with a 6-0 win over the Patriots being the glorious highlight during that time.
29 (up 2) New York Jets
The Jets never got started this season but they will still have taken some pleasure from beating their former head coach (very briefly) Bill Belichick in the snow in Week 18.
30 (down 1) Washington Commanders
Actually, I want to add the Commanders to that list of disappointing teams above. Maybe those folks who suggested they might try to sign a good quarterback before the season were right all along.
31 (down 7) New England Patriots
Is it the end of a legendary era? Bill Belichick certainly didn’t sound like it at his press conference, when he gave off “We’re on to 2024” vibes, but the availability of former Patriot Mike Vrabel may give Robert Kraft some extra thinking to do.
32 (-) Carolina Panthers
The Panthers fired everyone, with GM Scott Fitterer joining head coach Frank Reich on the scrapheap. They now get a chance to start fresh, presumably seeking a candidate with access to a time machine so they can make another choice with last year’s first-round pick (or just not do the trade to get there in the first place).
