The Bills and Patriots have met plenty of times down the years but never has so much been on the line in a game between these two AFC East rivals. In 1963, the Boston Patriots beat the Bills in the Pats’ first-ever playoff game, but in the subsequent 58 years and since they took on the New England tag, the duo have been kept apart in the postseason.
Now, they are gearing up for a huge showdown at what will be a freezing Orchard Park, the Bills having secured home-field advantage by edging out the Patriots for the AFC East title with an 11-6 record, while New England went 10-7. The two teams split their regular-season series so here’s the decider, with Buffalo favored by 4 points.
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First touchdown scorer: Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills (+850)
If picking a quarterback to open the scoring has left you scratching your head, let me explain my thinking behind the choice. Firstly, let’s rule out the Patriots getting the opening TD. The Bills have scored the first touchdown in 4 straight games and have been quicker off the mark than generally the Pats in games this season, averaging 6 points per first quarter to New England’s 4.5 average.
You aren’t short of options when considering who from the Bills’ offense might make the breakthrough but preference goes to Allen, who offers a bit more value than the likes of Stefon Diggs and Devin Singletary. The Bills quarterback is the 4th-highest TD scorer for Buffalo this season, rushing 6 times into the endzone with 3 of those scores coming in the final 5 weeks of the regular season.
Allen has started the run the ball more as a matter of course, registering double-digit rushing attempts in 3 of the final 5 games of the regular season, including in the Bills’ Week 16 win in New England when he ran for 64 yards on 12 attempts. He didn’t score a TD that night but has got 2 rushing touchdowns to his name in 7 previous games.
The Patriots’ defense hasn’t been as stout against the run as it was earlier in the year, allowing the Dolphins to stack up 195 yards on the ground in Week 18. New England has given up at least 114 rushing yards in 4 of the last 6 games and Allen usually brings his a-game when the Pats are in town, opening the door for him to cash in as a first touchdown scorer.
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Anytime touchdown scorer: Dawson Knox, TE, Buffalo Bills (+200)
As tempting as it was to play running-back roulette with the Patriots given both Rhamondre Stevenson and Brandon Bolden are better odds than Dawson Knox, I’ll take the hit in value for a more reliable source. Knox is second only to Diggs in touchdowns scored for the Bills this year having got in the endzone 9 times, including in Buffalo’s most recent meeting with New England. Despite Allen not being short of receivers to throw the ball to – especially if Emmanuel Sanders is passed fit – he still goes to Knox on a regular basis, particularly when the Bills get in the redzone. Knox has been targeted 22 times in the redzone, again second to only Diggs, and holds plenty of appeal to add to his touchdown tally for the year.
Read our same game parlay for Patriots vs Bills (+1114 odds!)
Anytime Touchdown Scorer FAQs
What does “anytime touchdown scorer” mean?
Anytime touchdown scorer is a popular player prop bet that NFL bettors can wager on throughout the season. But what is it, and how do you win?
As the name suggests, placing a wager on the anytime touchdown scorer market is when you tip a particular player to score a touchdown during a game. This can be a rushing or receiving touchdown for an offensive player, or you can wager on a team’s defense/special teams to score a touchdown by interception return and fumble return or kickoff and punt returns.
If your player or defense scores a touchdown, you win! The odds will differ from player-to-player depending on the sportsbooks’ calculated probability of that player scoring.
Does anytime touchdown scorer include passing touchdowns?
Not for a quarterback, no. A player must get into the end zone, himself, in order to qualify as an anytime touchdown scorer. If a quarterback throws a touchdown pass, only the player who caught it counts as the scorer. If Tom Brady throws a touchdown pass to Mike Evans, wagers placed on Evans as an anytime touchdown scorer will cash. However, those placed on Brady as an anytime touchdown scorer will not (unless he also runs for a TD). See below for more on what the anytime touchdown scorer market means for quarterbacks.
What does anytime touchdown scorer mean for a QB?
For a wager on a QB to be an anytime touchdown scorer to cash, he must follow the same rules as a running back, tight end, or receiver. He must get into the end zone himself, either as a runner or a pass-catcher.
In the age of the mobile quarterback, QBs such as Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, and Josh Allen are often seen rushing in for a touchdown on any given Sunday. And don’t forget the occasional Philly Special, either. QBs can sometimes catch passes for TDs, too.
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