The Tampa Bay Buccaneers continue their quest to ‘run it back’ with a Wild Card showdown against the Philadelphia Eagles, who are as surprised as anyone to find themselves in the playoffs.
The Buccaneers walked away from Philadelphia with a 28-22 win during the regular season but plenty has changed since then with the Eagles making a successful transition to a ground-and-pound offense. The league’s #1 rushing attack carried the Eagles to a Wild Card spot as they finished the regular season 9-8.
The Bucs won the NFC South with a 13-4 record and head into the playoffs boasting the top-ranked offense in the NFL, according to DVOA metrics. Tom Brady continues to defy father time and seems determined to fill both hands with Super Bowl rings as he chases #8.
You can read our full preview of Philadelphia Eagles v Tampa Bay Buccaneers here, but for now we’re honing in on a same game parlay that is available at +1097 odds with FanDuel Sportsbook.
Over 47.5 alternate total points (+120)
Breshad Perriman anytime touchdown scorer (+240)
Rob Gronkowski over 58.5 receiving yards (-110)
Parlay odds: +1097
Over 47.5 alternate total points (+120)
Tom Brady will be competing in the playoffs for the 19th season in his 22-year career and rather than showing signs of slowing down, he’s only getting better. Behind a line offering him excellent protection, Brady leads the league in touchdown passes (43) and passing yards (5,316) this season, while also setting a new record for pass completions in a single season. Brady has the ability to make anyone look good and despite the loss of Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown, the Buccaneers’ offense is humming. They have averaged over 30 ppg this season and that average only goes up to 33 ppg at Raymond James Stadium.
The Bucs have scored over 30 points on 10 separate occasions this year and will prove a handful for an Eagles defense that has been miserly on the road, allowing an average of 18.2 ppg but has struggled when faced with high-powered offenses. The Eagles can hit back with their offense though, which has developed a strong and successful identity. Philly hadn’t struck on this run-first game plan when they faced the Bucs in October and have since run over some good defenses, including hanging 40 on the Saints’ #1 ranked rush defense.
The Buccaneers know what to expect but stopping it is another matter entirely with the reigning champion’s defense ranked 12th in DVOA against the run this year. The Eagles are heavily reliant on their ground game but Jalen Hurts has shown he can play his part too with his arm and has been far more consistent since a horror show against the Giants, finishing the year with three straight games with a QB rating of over 90.
Both teams are well set up to score points but if you don’t believe me here are just a few more sprinkles to go on top of the argument. The over has been a friend to both teams recently, going 4-1 in the Eagles’ last 5 outings, while it is 5-1 in the Bucs’ last 6 January games and 5-2 in the last 7 meetings between the teams.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Philadelphia Eagles vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Breshad Perriman anytime touchdown scorer (+240)
Breshad Perriman is trying to work his way into Brady’s inner circle of trusted receivers and is showing signs of making progress as more pass catchers fall by the wayside. Cyril Grayson is the latest Tampa Bay receiver to go down with an injury and it would be a shock if Perriman, fresh from a strong outing against the Carolina Panthers in Week 18, saw a dip in workload.
The journeyman finished that game tied third for receptions, posting a stat line of 5 catches for 44 yards from 6 targets. Perriman and Tyler Johnson are battling to be the WR2 in the Bucs offense right now with Johnson having the edge and he’s slightly shorter in the betting to get in the end zone. However, despite Johnson’s bigger workload, he’s yet to score a TD this season, unlike Perriman, who grabbed a touchdown in the Week 14 win over the Bills. Since Godwin’s injury, Johnson and Perriman have the same number of red zone targets and it’s therefore worth taking the bit of extra value on Perriman, who looks likely to play a key role for the Bucs in the postseason.
Rob Gronkowski over 58.5 receiving yards (-110)
Perriman will need to be patient for his opportunities behind Mike Evans and Brady’s favorite target in 3 of the last 4 weeks, Rob Gronkowski. The tight end pocketed a cool million dollar bonus with an explosive Week 18 performance, capping a strong end to the regular season which saw him finish with double-digit targets in 4 of the last 7 games.
The former Patriot turned that workload into 3 games where he went over 100 yards, while he went over 58 yards on two other occasions. With the Buccaneers shorthanded when it comes to receivers, there’s no indication Gronkowski’s workload is about to drop and that could spell trouble for an Eagles defense that struggles against tight ends. The Eagles are giving up over 60 yards per game on average to TEs, while also allowing 14 touchdowns to the position during the regular season.
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