Andrew Wilsher
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The Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs concludes with a real humdinger as the Buffalo Bills head to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs. These teams are starting to get into quite a rivalry, after KC beat the Bills in the AFC Championship game last year, while Buffalo had the Chiefs’ number when the teams met earlier this season. Both teams looked phenomenal in their respective wild-card routs and this should be a great football game.
To add even more spice to this matchup, I’ve put together a 3-leg same game parlay that pays at +1578 odds with FanDuel Sportsbook.
I’ve been on a serious roll with my SGPs lately, having cashed a +825 Washington vs Giants same game parlay in Week 18 before winning my Raiders vs Bengals SGP at +1336 odds. Let’s see if I can make it 3 in a row!
Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 (-112)
Under 54.5 points (-110)
Dawson Knox to score a touchdown (+180)
Parlay odds: +1578
My favorite strategy for same game parlays is combining contradictory legs to get a solid odds boost. That’s the plan here, as going with the Chiefs and the under along with a TD by Buffalo’s Dawson Knox appears to conflict on paper, but I think all 3 have a great shot at coming off. Let me break it down.
Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 (-112)
The Chiefs crushed the Bills at Arrowhead Stadium in the playoffs last year, and I like their chances of pulling off another victory. Granted, Buffalo beat KC 38-20 earlier this season, but the Chiefs were in a slump at that point and their defense was a bit of a mess. Since the start of November, however, they have won 10 of 11 games with their D playing much better. Now that their offense is back in full flow after Patrick Mahomes threw 5 TD passes against the Steelers last week, I can’t see the Bills stopping them.
Buffalo might statistically have the best pass defense in football, but their recent success has been because they’ve gone up against the likes of Mac Jones (twice), Zach Wilson, Matt Ryan and Cam Newton. When they faced Tom Brady and the Bucs, they shipped 33 points. As for the Bills offense, although Josh Allen also threw 5 TD passes last week, he has been a lot less consistent and it’s still yet to be seen whether he can keep his cool in these big games. In front of a rowdy Arrowhead Stadium, I’m backing the Chiefs to once again head to the AFC Championship game.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs
Under 54.5 points (-110)
These teams have put 62 and 58 points on the board in their last 2 games, but this total still feels too high to me. The Bills pass defense is still one of the best in football and although I expect Mahomes to have success, he is sure going to have to work for it. Meanwhile, Kansas City’s defense has come on leaps and bounds compared to what it looked like at the start of the season, and there’s no way I can see Buffalo putting up 38 points again. The Chiefs have kept 5 of their last 6 opponents at Arrowhead to 10 or fewer points. That’s an incredible achievement and proves this team doesn’t just give up points. Expect a tight, low-scoring game.
Dawson Knox to score a touchdown (+180)
Taking Dawson Knox to score a TD gives the odds of this SGP a great boost. I expect the Bills to find the end zone at least a couple of times and Knox is great value to do so at +180. The tight end has become a shining light in Buffalo’s offense and has scored 6 touchdowns in his last 8 games, including 2 last week against the Patriots. But not only is he in great form, but the man absolutely loves playing against the Chiefs. He had 117 yards and a touchdown against them earlier this season, and 42 yards and a touchdown in last season’s AFC Championship game.
On top of that, Knox has the 2nd-most red-zone targets on the Bills and the 10th-most in the NFL. He has 22 targets for 14 completions and 8 touchdowns, so more than half the time he catches the ball down there, he winds up in the end zone. It makes great sense to add Knox to this SGP, and hopefully cash my 3rd straight.
Don’t forget to read our full game previews for every NFL Divisional Round matchup!
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
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