Andrew Ortenberg
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The first game of Sunday’s championship weekend action will first playoff meeting of Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship Game. Can the Buccaneers improbably win their third straight road game to get Brady back to another Super Bowl, or will Rodgers win the first NFCCG at Lambeau of his career.
Oddsmakers have the Chiefs as a modest favorite for this one, but right now we’re not talking about the spread. We’ve got plenty of thoughts on the game, including picks for the side and total, but right now we’ll be talking about some daily fantasy. Here’s what we’re rolling with in this single-game DraftKings showdown format:
Captain: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers ($16,800)
Davante Adams is the most expensive option for the captain slot, but I think you need to roll with Rodgers here. Tampa’s defense will certainly sell out to stop Adams, which may cause Rodgers to spread the ball around more than usual just like he has the last couple of weeks. I’m not at all scared by this Bucs secondary. Sure they looked decent against the Saints last week, but only because Drew Brees can’t throw the ball more than ten yards down the field. The week before, they were busy making Taylor Heinicke look like a franchise quarterback. Rodgers has been incredibly consistent this season, and hasn’t had a bad fantasy day in months. His upside is also off the charts.
Flex: Davante Adams, WR, Packers ($11,600)
While I’m not going with Adams at captain, we can’t keep him out of our lineup entirely. I think he should feast on an inexperienced and young Buccaneers secondary. He didn’t have his biggest game last week, but he still had nine catches for 66 yards and a touchdown, and that was while lining up against Jalen Ramsey. Tampa doesn’t have anyone in Ramsey’s stratosphere on defense. The weather also should give Adams an advantage here, as he’s dominated teams that aren’t used to the cold. In the snow game against the Titans a few weeks ago his routes were as crisp as ever, and he had 142 yards and three touchdowns.
Flex: Chris Godwin, WR, Buccaneers ($7,800)
It’s not like Tampa’s offense isn’t going to have any success either. I think Godwin will have the biggest day of any Bucs pass-catcher, and I like him a lot more than Mike Evans this week who is more expensive. That’s because Evans will be lined up against shutdown corner Jaire Alexander on the outside. The way to attack this Packers defense is over the middle, which will benefit Godwin as he runs a lot of his routes out of the slot. He’s already got 19 targets through Tampa’s first two playoff games, and the absence of Antonio Brown here should help him draw a few extra looks.
Flex: Jamaal Williams, RB, Packers ($2,200)
In order to all those expensive players into our DraftKings lineup we’re going to need to round it out with some cheaper options, and at least one extremely cheap guy. Williams fits that bill nicely. Of the players priced this low, he has by far the largest role on offense. He played 28 offensive snaps last week and got 12 carries, which gives him real upside. Rookie A.J. Dillon hurt himself and fumbled last week, which could mean a handful of extra snaps for Williams as well.
Flex: Ronald Jones, RB, Buccaneers ($5,400)
Jones being $3,000 cheaper than Leonard Fournette doesn’t make much sense to me. Fade the Fournette hype. Jones was still working his way back from a quad injury last week, which is why he didn’t receive as many carries. He still managed to look far better than Fournette, who averaged only 3.7 yards per carry, as a runner though. Now Jones will be closer to full strength here after a full practice on Friday, should get a heavier workload, and is facing a Packers defense that has really struggled to stop the run. They just let Cam Akers average 5.0 yards per carry last week.
Flex: Robert Tonyan, TE, Packers ($6,200)
We’re rounding this out with Big Bob Tonyan, who is always getting targeted in the redzone. He’s scored a touchdown in six of his last eight games, and his 60 yards last week against the Rams show that he isn’t entirely touchdown or bust either. Rodgers trusts him fully, and after a few huge catches in the divisional round I think he’ll be locked into a big role here.
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