Ricky Dimon
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Much of the NFL offseason is spent trying to forecast which teams are going to be the best of the best. And we have already done plenty of that at Pickswise. For example, you can check out our Super Bowl best bets, AFC Championship predictions and NFC Championship picks.
Right now, though, it’s time to touch on the teams that might not be good. There are always those franchises that underachieve, if not perennially then at least every now and then. Let’s take a look at some of the best bets to be made on teams failing to live up to expectations and missing the playoffs this season.
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Chicago Bears (-180)
At modest -180 odds, the Bears are my favorite bet to miss the playoffs. Really, the juice should be considerably more for a team that went 3-14 a season ago under a first-year head coach who obviously remains unproven heading into year 2. Chicago only took a step back (from 6-11 in 2021) with Matt Eberflus at the helm in 2022. Eberflus did not have much talent to work with last season; he has a little bit more this time around…but probably not enough to make the playoffs. Quarterback Justin Fields remains unproven in the passing department despite his amazing ability to run the football and even after the Bears upgraded the talent around him by trading the #1 overall pick, the roster is still far from elite. Although the NFC North is nothing special, Detroit is on the rise and Minnesota cannot be entirely discounter after compiling a 13-4 record last season.
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Los Angeles Chargers (+105)
The Chargers endured one of the biggest meltdowns in NFL history when they lost to the Jaguars 31-30 in the wild-card round of the 2022 playoffs after leading 27-0 with less than a minute left in the second quarter. I suppose time heals all wounds and they can recover mentally from that disaster, but either way it’s not like this team is a juggernaut on paper in 2023. Although there is plenty of star power at the skill positions, running back Austin Ekeler is injury prone and so is linebacker Joey Bosa. A lot has to go right for Los Angeles to make a return trip to the playoffs; I’m not sure there is enough depth on the roster to compensate if things go wrong. Keep in mind, too, that the Bolts play in an AFC West with the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs and a Broncos squad that is expected to improve under head coach Sean Payton.
Dallas Cowboys (+195)
There is no way I’m passing up such a perennially underachieving franchise this far into plus money. It is true that the Cowboys generally collapse after they make the playoffs, but you have to think there is at least some chance that it happens before they even get that far in 2023. Dak Prescott can’t stay healthy and he isn’t elite even when he is healthy, the Ezekiel Elliott era is over and Micah Parsons can’t do everything on defense – even though he has a good chance to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year. As for the NFC East, it is no longer the laughingstock of the NFL. Philadelphia may be the best team in the conference if not the entire NFL and even the Giants made the playoffs last year. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Dallas finish third in the division and miss out on a wild-card spot.
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