Caleb Wilfinger
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Week 12 of the NFL campaign features a fascinating matchup between a pair of AFC North stalwarts.
Here is my Same Game Parlay for the festivities, which kick off at 1:00 pm ET on CBS. Also be sure to check out our full Steelers vs Browns predictions.
Browns -1.5 (-110)
Under 33.5 (-110)
Kareem Hunt to score a touchdown (+250)
Parlay odds: +1300
Browns -1.5 (-110)
For weeks on end, we’ve told bettors to wait to fade Pittsburgh. Regardless of how pedestrian their offense looks and the data that supports that claim (26th in points per game, 28th in yards per game), the Steelers keep finding ways to win. Depending on their opponent, it’s often the right idea to wager on Mike Tomlin’s grungy team than it is to bet against them. However, that is not the case with this revenge spot for a surging home team.
Down 31-17 entering the fourth quarter, Cleveland scored 16 unanswered points in the game’s final 14 minutes to earn one of the most entertaining comeback victories of the NFL season in Week 10. DeShaun Watson played one of his best games as a Brown, showing elite accuracy and arm strength in the most pressing moments. However, we learned this week that Watson is having season-ending surgery on his shoulder, and therefore will not play on Sunday. In steps Dorian Thompson-Robinson, and while he hardly provides the same level of confidence, this is still a Browns team worth backing on Sunday. The Steelers are due to regress, and I think we see that against an elite defense in Cleveland.
Under 33.5 (-110)
Oddsmakers are naturally anticipating a low-scoring affair between two defensive-minded coaches and teams. Simply put, the Browns are the best defense in the NFL. No team owns more 1st place rankings across all metrics, including opponent yards per game, 3rd down conversion rate, completion percentage, passing yards per game, and time of possession. They’re also top 5 in many other categories. And while they do struggle in the red zone, the Steelers hardly get to the red zone in the first place, so I’m not worried in that regard.
The first contest finished with 48 points, and the total was listed at 39.5. Of course, both defenses scored a TD in their Week 2 matchup, or that would have been a 34-point total. In any case, oddsmakers haven’t budged. In the chilly and windy environment of Cleveland Browns Stadium, a venue that’s averaged only 30.2 ppg this season, we’ll ignore the small sample sizes of production from the Cleveland and Pittsburgh offenses. These teams are always predicated by defense, and I’d expect for these two prideful units to provide a ton of resistance.
Kareem Hunt to record a touchdown (+250)
While this game has the lowest total of the entire Sunday slate, getting Hunt at a price of +250 after scoring in 5 straight weeks is just absurd. If Dorian Thompson-Robinson can get the Browns in the red zone at least once on Sunday, Hunt will get the call. It helps that Pittsburgh’s rush defense got crushed this past week as the Steelers were missing their 2 starting inside linebackers. Let’s roll the dice with Hunt.
