Andrew Wilsher
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We’ve reached the final day of NFL Super Wild Card Weekend, although we do have 1 extra game than we anticipated. The Steelers take on the Bills at 4:30 pm ET after the game was delayed by more than 24 hours due to a snowstorm in Buffalo. Conditions still look to be testing with temperatures well below freezing, and it will be interesting to see how each team copes with these added hurdles. Let’s dive into my Steelers vs Bills Same Game Parlay, and make sure you read our NFL picks for today and every postseason game.
Under 38.5 (-110)
Najee Harris Over 60.5 rushing yards (-110)
Mason Rudolph Under 170.5 passing yards (-110)
Mason Rudolph Over 0.5 passing touchdowns (-136)
Same Game Parlay odds: +1255
Under 38.5 (-110)
To get this Same Game Parlay started, we’re taking the under. Of course, the weather conditions play a part in this handicap — snow remains forecast for the game (although not quite as bad as it was on Sunday) and that could lead to both teams struggling to move the football. We had a snow game last week between the Jets and Patriots, and that saw 20 points scored as both quarterbacks COMBINED for 158 passing yards (and completed just 20 of 50 pass attempts). Granted, the Jets and Patriots have struggled on offense all season, but the Steelers haven’t been much better while the Bills will be more than happy to run the football. All things considered, I expect this game to be a classic winter grind with each coach erring on the side of caution knowing that their season is on the line.
Read our full Pittsburgh Steelers vs Buffalo Bills predictions
Najee Harris Over 60.5 rushing yards (-110)
Najee Harris struggled early in the season which led to the Steelers bringing Jaylen Warren more into the backfield, but lately Harris has been red-hot. The running back has comfortably cleared this line in his last 3 games, putting up 78, 122 and 112 yards on the ground. He’s also had an insane 72 carries in that period. Mike Tomlin is trusting his star RB to get it done, and to his credit, Harris has been a big reason why the Steelers are in the position they are. Again, with cold and snowy conditions forecast I see no reason for that game plan to change. The Bills have given up the 5th-most rushing yards per carry so there’s every chance Harris continues to shine.
Mason Rudolph Under 170.5 passing yards (-110)
To align with the Harris leg of our Same Game Parlay, I’m also taking the under on Rudolph’s passing yards. The quarterback completed 90% of his passes last week but posted just 152 yards. With the rough conditions and likelihood that the Steelers lean heavily on Harris again, I’m expecting Rudolph to take somewhat of a backseat. Of course, with the Bills being 10-point favorites there is a chance that Pittsburgh falls heavily behind and Rudolph is forced to air it out, much like we saw in Packers vs Cowboys last night as Dak Prescott put up over 400 yards in that blowout loss, but Buffalo boasts a sturdy pass defense and has allowed the 8th-fewest passing yards per attempt.
Find out our best Steelers vs Bills player prop bet — we’re on a 6-0 run on Wild Card Weekend!
Mason Rudolph Over 0.5 passing touchdowns (-136)
We need a contrarian play in this Same Game Parlay to give the odds a nice boost, and we’re doing it here in the form of Rudolph throwing a touchdown pass. I know this goes against both the under and Rudolph putting up less than 170.5 passing yards, but there is no reason both can’t cash. After all, we could see a scenario where Harris pounds the rock all the way downfield, only for Rudolph to throw a short pass deep inside the red zone for the score. And again, if the Steelers do fall behind then the quarterback will be encouraged to air it out more. All in all, I’m happy to take the slight risk here to bump our SGP up to +1255 odds.
Read our NFL Wild Card Betting Guide for today’s action, featuring Steelers vs Bills and Eagles vs Bucs
