Ricky Dimon
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Week 18 of the NFL season kicks off on Saturday afternoon with an AFC North matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens. Pittsburgh is 2 games over .500 at 9-7 but still might need to win and get help in order to make the playoffs. On the other hand, this is an entirely meaningless affair for the 13-3 Ravens; they have already clinched a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs.
Here is my Same Game Parlay for the festivities, which get underway at 4:30 pm ET on ABC. Also be sure to check out our full Steelers vs Ravens predictions.
Steelers -6.5 alternate spread (+146)
Najee Harris to record 90+ rushing yards (+210)
Tyler Huntley Over 0.5 passing touchdowns (-125)
Parlay odds: +1018
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Pittsburgh running back Najee Harris racking up plenty of rushing yards would obviously work well with a big win by the Steelers. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with backing Baltimore quarterback Tyler Huntley to throw a touchdown pass. But even if he does, there is no reason why Pittsburgh can’t take care of business. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
Steelers -6.5 alternate spread (+146)
At full strength, it goes without saying that Baltimore is the much better football team. Needless to say, though, the Ravens have no reason to put their best foot forward on Sunday. And they won’t. Star quarterback Lamar Jackson will be among the starters not playing for the home team, which has already clinched the top spot in the AFC. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, is in the midst of a major fight for a wild card. The Steelers have rebounded nicely from a disastrous 3-game losing streak in December, picking up 2 consecutive victories to clinch yet another winning season under head coach Mike Tomlin. They are coming off back-to-back to defeats of Cincinnati and Seattle, during which they scored 34 and 30 points. The offense is looking much better with Mason Rudolph under center. With an inspired Steelers team playing good football again, they have a chance to in by at least a touchdown at the expense of an indifferent opponent.
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Najee Harris to record 90+ rushing yards (+205)
Harris is averaging 100 yards over the past 2 games and he has gotten 19 and 27 carries during this stretch. Fellow running back Jaylen Warren, by contrast, has 8 and 13 attempts in the last 2. They have split time in the backfield this entire season, but right now it seems like Harris has the upper hand. Given his recent success against Cincinnati and Seattle, the story will probably be a similar one on Saturday. If Harris receives another heavy workload, he should parlay it into plenty of yards. Baltimore is #1 in the league in yards per pass attempt alllowed, but it is giving up 4.5 yards per carry. This also coincides nicely with the Pittsburgh -6.5 play, as the visitors will be inclined to run the ball early and often if they are playing from ahead.
Tyler Huntley Over 0.5 passing touchdowns (-125)
Asking Huntley to throw just a single touchdown should not be too much. The Utah product tossed a TD pass in each of his past 2 relief appearances; now he is playing an entire game. Last season Huntley was QB1 in Baltimore throughout the month of December and in the playoffs due to a Jackson injury. He tossed a scoring strike in each of the last 2 regular-season contests and then accounted for 2 TDs through the air against Cincinnati in the wild-card round. The Steelers are #23 in the NFL against the pass and have surrendered 22 touchdowns through the air.
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