Andrew Ortenberg
Show Bio
And then there were four. The first game of Sunday’s championship weekend action will kickoff here with the Green Bay Packers hosting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tom Brady will look to finish off an improbable run to yet another Super Bowl by winning a third straight road game, while Aaron Rodgers is getting to play an NFC Championship Game at home for the first time in his decorated career.
It’ll be incredible no matter who wins, and what better way to celebrate the occasion than with a same game parlay? We’ve also got thoughts on the side and total for this one, which you can find out in our full game preview.
If you’re new to same game parlays and want to find out more, be sure to check out our handy guide, which details how they work and which sportsbooks currently offer them.
Green Bay Packers alternate spread -6.5 (+140)
Aaron Jones to score a touchdown (-115)
Aaron Rodgers over 283.5 passing yards (-112)
Chris Godwin over 65.5 receiving yards (-112)
Parlay odds: +1218
The benefit of same game parlays is that you can combine plays that correlate with each other, and I think all four of these do pretty well. I certainly see this scenario playing out better than once in every 13 times, which is all we need here. Let’s break down the four legs one by one:
Green Bay Packers alternate spread -6.5 (+140)
I think there’s a good chance the Packers win this one without breaking much of a sweat. Playing in Lambeau in the cold comes as a shock to the system for teams that aren’t used to it, as we’ve seen in Green Bay’s last two home games against the Titans and Rams. Both of those teams got smoke by multiple touchdowns. Everyone is jumping on the Bucs’ bandwagon after their win over the Saints, but I don’t think they played well against New Orleans at all.
They were the beneficiaries of a bunch of fluke turnovers, and their three touchdowns went for a total of 63 yards. It was far from an impressive win. In the wild card round they got a 7-9 Washington team, and barely managed to squeak by Taylor Heinicke in his second career start while making him look like a franchise quarterback in the process. Tampa Bay is fraudulent, and I think they get exposed here.
Aaron Jones to score a touchdown (-115)
This correlates very strongly, since if the Packers win by at least a touchdown then there’s a very good chance Jones found the endzone. Jones has a rushing touchdown in three of his past four games, and since the Bucs gave up more receptions to running backs than any other team in the league this season, I think we’ve got a good shot at a receiving score as well. In last year’s postseason, Jones had four touchdowns in two games. If the Packers are up big in this game, that also correlates to a game-script that features a lot of running.
Aaron Rodgers over 283.5 passing yards (-112)
If the Packers win, then I think that also means that Rodgers torched this exploitable Buccaneers secondary. Drew Brees wasn’t able to take advantage last week, but that’s only because his body was breaking down on him and he hadn’t been able to throw deep all season. The key to beating Tampa’s defense is exploiting their young corners over the topped, and Rodgers is going to make them pay for their aggressiveness. When these teams played earlier this season, Allen Lazard was injured and it was Davante Adams’ first game back from a hamstring injury. Rodgers has been absolutely on fire recently, and he had 296 yards last week against a Rams defense that had given up the fewest yards per pass attempt this season.
Chris Godwin over 65.5 receiving yards (-112)
If the Packers are up big, it means the Bucs will be doing a lot of passing to catch up. I think Godwin will be the biggest beneficiary of that passing. The way to exploit Green Bay’s defense is over the middle, which is good news for Godwin. They aren’t going to have much success targeting Mike Evans on the outside as he’s matched up against stud corner Jaire Alexander, which will mean more looks for Godwin out of the slot. He’s already gotten 19 targets through Tampa’s first two playoff games, and has at least 79 yards in three of his last four games, so this total feels pretty light.
Free NFL Playoffs Championship Weekend Picks and Predictions
Be sure to check out our full-game previews for every matchup in the divisional round:
Pickswise is the home of free Super Bowl Predictions. Our expert handicappers break down all things Super Bowl, including our best free Prop Bets and our Super Bowl Parlays.
