Andrew Ortenberg
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The 2023 NFL season is here at last, and we have an enticing Week 1 slate to kickoff the new campaign. There’s a lot of excitement in the air, and what better way to celebrate than by betting a Same Game Parlay?
This is an interesting cross-conference matchup between the Eagles and Patriots, and I have cooked up an SGP for the occasion:
Here we go:
New England Patriots -6.5 alt spread (+370)
Mac Jones over 218.5 passing yards (-110)
Under 44.5 (-112)
Parlay odds: +2116
We have a 3-leg same game parlay, which pays out at north of 21/1 with FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s break it down.
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New England Patriots -6.5 alternate spread (+370)
To start this same game parlay we have New England on the alt spread. Getting Bill Belichick as a home ‘dog is always appealing, and I think the Eagles might have somewhat of a Super Bowl hangover here. Just look at what happened to the Chiefs on Thursday night. I’m admittedly an Eagles skeptic, and I don’t think this Patriots offense will be as hopeless as many seem to expect. Remember, at this time lats year the Pats had Matt Patricia calling their offense and running their passing game.
Going from Patricia to Bill O’Brien, a highly accomplished offensive mind who has had a lot of success with quarterbacks at both the NFL and college level, is a massive upgrade that can’t really be understated. O’Brien played a large role in some of New England’s dominant offenses a decade ago, and I’ll be very interested to see what he can do for Mac Jones. Which brings us to our second leg….
Mac Jones over 218.5 passing yards (-110)
Jones is coming off a disastrous 2022 campaign that saw him get benched at times for Bailey Zappe. As such, it’s the perfect time to buy low, and a 218.5 total here is almost disrespectfully low. The Pats waived Zappe at roster cutdown time to make it clear that there was no QB controversy this time around, and like I just laid out above I expect O’Brien to have a hugely positive impact on Jones’ development.
New England knows it isn’t going to be able to just run at Philly’s stout defensive front all day, so I’d expect the Patriots to lean more on the quick passing game here. Since I don’t think they will be able to run, betting Jones’ over correlates nicely with our Pats -6.5 alt spread leg. Jones also quietly played much better down the stretch in 2022, tossing for at least 200 yards and multiple touchdowns in each of his final 3 games. And he got to 240+ in two of those.
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Under 44.5 (-112)
We get a big odds boost by throwing in the under here to go with our Pats alt spread, when I don’t think it conflicts much at all. Because if the Patriots are covering a -6.5 spread in this game, it’s likely going to be because their defense dominated. I’m not sold on Philly’s offense, and I think we’re going to see some regression from Jalen Hurts in 2023. If anyone can slow him down, it’s Bill Belichick with an entire offseason to prepare for one opponent. In their last 5 Week 1s, the Patriots have given up a grand total of 71 points (14.2 ppg). A Belichick defense hasn’t given up more than 20 points in a Week 1 game since all the way back in 2017.
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
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