NFL offseason betting: How Brady, Rodgers, and Murray impact the QB carousel

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Ricky Dimon

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Since graduating from Davidson (The College That Stephen Curry Built), I have been writing about sports -- just about any and all you can think of! -- and coaching tennis in Atlanta, GA. Beyond the four major sports, I am an avid tennis fan and cover the ATP Tour on a daily basis. If I'm not busy writing, you can generally find me on a tennis court or traveling the world wherever a sporting event takes me. For Ricky Dimon media enquiries, please email contact@pickswise.com.
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It has already been a wild offseason in the NFL, complete with controversy, retirements, team name changes, and a whole host of coaches on the move. The Washington football team’s nickname surely won’t be the only thing that is different in 2022, because in all likelihood more than a few franchises will hand over the reins to their offenses to new quarterbacks.

Let’s take a look at some of the key offseason storylines and how they could shake out between now and kickoff of the 2022 NFL campaign.

Odds to be next Buccaneers quarterback

Although major sportsbooks such as DraftKings and FanDuel are not currently offering odds on Tampa Bay’s successor to Tom Brady, MaximBet revealed its list a couple of weeks ago right after the 7-time Super Bowl champion announced his retirement. Expect these numbers to be at least relatively similar when they land on the wider market.

*QB who takes first snap for the Buccaneers in Week 1 of the 2022 regular season

Kyle Trask +400
Jimmy Garoppolo +450
Carson Wentz +550
Aaron Rodgers +750
Teddy Bridgewater +750
Derek Carr +950
Cam Newton +1200
Marcus Mariota +1200
Ryan Fitzpatrick +1200
Jameis Winston +1400
Tyrod Taylor +1400
Kirk Cousins +1600
Russell Wilson +1600
Ryan Tannehill +2200
Blaine Gabbert +2500
Deshaun Watson +2500

Brady decided to call it quits shortly following Tampa Bay’s dramatic loss to the eventual Super Bowl champion Rams in the Divisional Round of the NFC playoffs. That hasn’t ended speculation about the 44-year-old possibly returning (not necessarily this year and not necessarily with the Bucs), and it has also fueled discussion regarding the Bucs’ succession plan under center. Right now there isn’t a clear-cut plan.

Given that Kyle Trask is the only QB on the above list on Tampa Bay’s current roster, he may have the best value despite being the favorite. After all, head coach Bruce Arians and company drafted him in the second round for a reason. Jimmy Garoppolo and Carson Wentz will almost certainly be available, but are QBs proven to be nothing more than mediocre really an upgrade over a young up-and-comer like Trask? I doubt it.

Aaron Rodgers 2022 team odds

It was originally assumed that the 2021 season would be Aaron Rodgers’ last in Green Bay. Fast forward 5 months and – even though the Packers underachieved with a divisional-round exit – the narrative has changed. Packers management sounds like they are going all-in on Rodgers and he has also made it seem like he is open to returning. From an individual standpoint, this past season went swimmingly for Rodgers. The 38-year-old earned NFL MVP honors for the fourth time in his career while leading his team to the NFC North title and the No. 1 seed in the conference.

Green Bay Packers -225
Denver Broncos +250
Pittsburgh Steelers +350
Miami Dolphins +450
Philadelphia Eagles +550
Cleveland Browns +750
Las Vegas Raiders +900
New York Jets +1200
Carolina Panthers +1400
New Orleans Saints +1400
Tennessee Titans +1400

At reasonable -225 odds, Green Bay appears to have decent value. If you are in the business of making more exciting bets at plus money, Denver at +250 and Tennessee at +1400 are worth a shot. The Broncos hired Packers offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett as their next head coach, thus making for an obvious Rodgers connection. As for the Titans, they are built to win now if they can get an elite player under center – which Ryan Tannehill is not. If Rodgers is finally ready to burn bridges in the Frozen Tundra, Tennessee wouldn’t be the worst landing spot.

Odds to be Cardinals starting QB in Week 1

Kyler Murray -700
Any Other Quarterback +450

Say what you will about Kyler Murray purging his social media channels of anything that has to do with the Cardinals. But the bottom line is that even if the social media stuff is fluff, Murray isn’t happy. And why not? Arizona was the NFL’s last undefeated team in 2021 but fizzled out down the stretch. Murray and company could not even win the NFC West, and forced to go on the road in round one of the playoffs where they lost right away to division rival Los Angeles.

Just a couple of days ago the former Heisman Trophy winner was -1000 to be Arizona’s starting QB in Week 1 of the 2022 season; now he is -700. It may be too late to jump on Any Other Quarterback (it’s down to +450 from +550), but if Murray’s odds continue to get friendlier then some real value may be created. After all, does anyone really think he will be gone?!

Pickswise is the home of NFL Picks. Be sure to check out all of our post-Super Bowl offseason coverage as we gear up for the 2022 campaign.

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