Ricky Dimon
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Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is taking the NFL by storm this season. Future Hall of Famer Drew Brees is still on fire at 39 years old and currently has the New Orleans Saints at 8-1. That is all well and good, but it is a different guy who is going to win NFL MVP. You heard it here first (well, maybe not first, but you’re hearing it now even though he isn’t the favorite): Los Angeles Rams running back Todd Gurley II.
Why Todd Gurley Is Going To Win It
The former University of Georgia standout is currently a +600 third choice to win the award, which is almost certainly the best value. Mahomes is favored against the entire field at -125, while Brees is a +140 second choice. Nobody else has managed to stay in the serious discussion though 10 weeks; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers and Los Angeles Chargers signal-caller Philip Rivers are tied as +1600 fourth favorites.
It is fair to say that Gurley—at least according to the odds—needs some help from Mahomes and Brees. So let’s first discuss why he might get that help.
Mahomes is just 23 years old and he is basically a rookie, having sat on the sideline behind Alex Smith throughout the 2017 campaign. Unsurprisingly, he is already starting to come back down to Earth following an otherworldly start. The former No. 10 overall pick tossed 14 touchdowns passes without a single interception through four games. He has since been picked off seven times over the last seven contests. As the pressure mounts on Kansas City during its bid for the AFC West title and the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs, mistakes are likely to continue.
What About Drew Brees?
Brees’ age is no factor; it’s obvious he isn’t slowing down. But he just can’t keep up a 21-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, can he? Not even Brees can do that. The one-time Super Bowl champion isn’t average, but the law of averages still applies: he is going to cool off. And the Saints, who may not be quite as good as their 8-1 record indicates, may also see their flames doused just a bit. Their defense is improving, but it remains far from great.
If the door opens for Gurley, there is no reason to think he won’t walk through it. Through 10 outings he already has 988 rushing yards, 402 receiving yards on 40 catches, and 17 total touchdowns (13 rushing, four receiving). The 24-year-old has never shown any signs of wear and tear as a professional and this season is no exception. He has found the endzone 11 times in the past six games.
The schedule is also friendly for Gurley, who gets to face a porous Chiefs defense in Week 11’s Monday night game. He will then benefit from a bye—and the rest of his team will do the same. The Rams will return from it for a closing five-game stretch that includes dates with the Detroit Lions, Arizona Cardinals, and San Francisco 49ers.
If Gurley maintains his current pace and the Rams finish 15-1 (or even 14-2), he will likely have to be considered the best player on the best team—especially if L.A. can continue their success all season long.
We will know more after Week 11, but don’t be surprised if Gurley ends up being the guy.
