Week 11 of the 2022 NFL campaign concludes with the San Francisco 49ers and Arizona Cardinals colliding on Monday Night Football at 8:15 pm ET on ESPN and our NFL expert Clevta has a best bet and predictions for the game. This also concludes this season’s international series, as the 49ers-Cardinals showdown is taking place south of the border at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City.
It may be a new setting, but we’re aiming for the same Pickswise success after our experts went 8-3-1 ATS on Sunday.
Don’t miss out on our best touchdown scorer bets for 49ers vs Cardinals
Clevta’s San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals best bet: 49ers -8 (-110)
The injuries are really the issue here for Arizona and I think Colt McCoy will get another start as Kyler Murray is questionable. But the concern is along the offensive line, where the Cardinals were already missing multiple starters but now till be without their best one in LT DJ Humphries. An already bad OL just got significantly worse, and if there is one thing I have learned in many years of handicapping the NFL it is if you are overmatched on the line you have no chance. Humphries grades out as the 11th-best tackle in pass-block grade by PFF. His backup is 3rd-year man Josh Jones, who has played fine in limited snaps but endured a brutally poor 2020 season. And now he and the rest of that banged-up OL has to face maybe the best front 4 in the NFL.
Don’t miss our 49ers vs Cardinals Same Game Parlay (+896 odds!)
McCoy is a reliable veteran QB, but he is a complete dink and dunker. His 6.4 air yards per attempt is 3rd from the bottom this season among NFL QBs and that is not going to get the job done against this Niners defense — especially one that doesn’t need to blitz to get pressure and against a bad OL should have no problem limiting explosive plays.
The Niners’ offense is loaded and another week of practice with all of their weapons at their disposal will make them tough to stop. Arizona has played much better defense of late, but against other top 12 EPA offenses this season — KC, SEA twice, MIN and PHI — the Cardinals are 0-5 straight up and 1-4 ATS. They allowed 29.6 ppg in those games. And where the Cardinals’ defense struggles the most and aligns perfectly for a Kyle Shanahan offense is against RBs and TEs. In fact, Arizona ranks 31st in DVOA defending TEs and 30th in DVOA defending RBs out of the backfield. Hello, George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey! There are just too many weapons on the Niners on both sides of the ball.
Don’t miss Prop Holliday’s MNF 49ers vs Cardinals best player props
George Kittle Over 41.5 receiving yards (-110)
It’s kind of obvious considering how Arizona ranks last in the NFL in allowing 73.6 yards per game to TEs, but Kittle has only faced 2 other defenses that are in the bottom 10 in defending TEs — the Falcons and Chiefs. Kittle produced his 2 best games of the season with 98 yards against the Chiefs and 83 against the Falcons.
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Clevta has been a successful NFL handicapper for over a decade. His approach is a combination of bottoms-up fundamental team and matchup analytics along with a deep knowledge of the betting market to help drive success.
He has been a regular contestant in the Westgate NFL Supercontest and Circa Millions, where he has posted an aggregate 56% winning percentage, including four separate seasons with a win percentage of at least 60%. Now he brings his expert NFL handicapping skills to Pickswise.
You can find more of Clevta’s weekly NFL game analysis at ClevAnalytics.com.
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