Andrew Wilsher
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Week 16 wraps up with an intriguing matchup on Monday Night Football as the Miami Dolphins take on the New Orleans Saints. Both teams are currently 7-7 and fighting to secure wild-card playoff spots, and defeat for either would all but eliminate them from contention. The Saints will probably have to start rookie QB Ian Book with Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian both doubtful to play, and it will be a big ask for the young signal-caller to make his first start in primetime against a defense like Miami’s — especially under must-win circumstances.
This is sure to be an intriguing game, and to add further excitement we have put together a same game parlay that pays at +1492 with FanDuel Sportsbook.
Miami Dolphins -6.5 alternate spread (+160)
Under 36.5 points (-110)
Alvin Kamara over 56.5 rushing yards (-114)
Parlay odds: +1492
The benefit of same game parlays is that you can add in some contradictory plays to really boost the odds, when really they might not conflict too much. That’s what we have here, as taking Kamara to go over his rush line contradicts with the Dolphins -6.5 on paper when really I don’t think they conflict too much. Let’s break it all down.
Miami Dolphins -6.5 alternate spread (+160)
Both the Dolphins and Saints have looked hot recently, but Miami has straight up been on fire. The Dolphins have won their last six games and their defense has been playing lights out, allowing more than 17 points just once in that winning run. They’ve been blitzing like it’s going out of style and quarterbacks don’t seem to know how to deal with it. Even if Hill starts I’m expecting him to struggle, but with a rookie like Book being pegged to come in and make his first career start on primetime, this has disaster written all over it. Top quarterbacks haven’t found an answer for Miami’s defense, and I doubt Book will be able to find the solution either.
Miami’s offense has steadily improved with the winning run, with Tua Tagovailoa building tremendous chemistry with Jaylen Waddle as well as his plethora of tight ends. Running back Myles Gaskin has been poor, but Duke Johnson came in last week and tore the Jets apart so I’m expecting him to get the bulk of the carries from here on out. The Saints’ defense will be tough to break down, as they proved in last week’s shutout against the Bucs, but I believe the Dolphins have the tools to pick them apart. Give me Miami to win this by a touchdown to kick off this same game parlay.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Miami Dolphins vs New Orleans Saints
Under 36.5 points (-110)
As highlighted above, this is likely to be a battle of two top defenses and that should result in a low-scoring game. I really can’t see how Book has success at all under center against this defense, and he’ll likely lean into Alvin Kamara running the ball in order to take some of the heat off. Even then, that should keep the clock ticking and limit possessions for both teams. I mentioned that the Fins have kept opponents to 17 points and under in 6 of their last 7 games, and that trend is likely to continue here.
As for the Miami offense, although Tagovailoa has improved it is still taking on a defense that has allowed just 9 total points in its last 2 games; it’s a unit that is full of confidence. The Saints just shut down and humiliated Tom Brady and although I’m expecting the Dolphins to have some success moving the chains, it’s unlikely to be enough to run up the score.
Alvin Kamara over 56.5 rushing yards (-114)
For the final leg of this SGP, we’re rolling with Kamara’s rushing yards. As mentioned, this is somewhat contradictory to the Dolphins -6.5 play — but with Book likely to struggle I think that the Saints will be giving plenty of carries to their star running back. Kamara did get shut down by the Bucs’ defense, but prior to that he put up 120 rushing yards against the Jets and he should be fired up to bounce back and carry his team here. Miami has struggled against the run at times this season, and I’m expecting New Orleans head coach Sean Payton to try and exploit that as best he can.
Check out the rest of our NFL Week 16 same game parlays!
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