Clevta’s Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers best ATS bet: Broncos +5 (1-star play)
I still believe in Russell Wilson, even after this dreadful start. His performances had increased each week this season up until last week when he was playing on a short week with a bad shoulder. The time off should help him get healed up in time. Without Joey Bosa, this Chargers pass rush and run defense has been non existent, allowing 38 to Jacksonville, 24 to Houston and 28 to the Browns. With a 4th ranked explosive pass offense, the Broncos should be able to get some big plays even if they don’t sustain consistent drives on offense. And if the Broncos are down late and need a backdoor TD against a prevent defense, Wlison will turn to his scrambling to get it done. In his career, Wilson is 29-19-3 ATS in night games. The Chargers are only 3-3 ATS as favorites of 3.5 or more under head coach Brandon Staley.
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Clevta’s Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers best Over/Under bet: Over 45.5
I know that primetime games have gone under a lot this season, but you can’t think like that when it comes to each individual matchup. The Broncos get essentially a full bye week to fix their offense against their divisional rival. I think Russell Wilson playing last Thursday night on a short week while nursing his shoulder issue, was a recipe for the disaster we saw against the Colts. Now he gets almost two full weeks to get treatment and I think you will see a better version of him on Monday.
Both of these teams play at a faster than league average pace when it comes to neutral situations and the Chargers come into this game #1 in fastest pace. Even when they are leading by a decent margin, they are top 10 in pace. Both of these teams also throw the ball in neutral game situations, at a very high rate. The Broncos throw it at the 11th highest rate and the Chargers at the 5th highest rate. I expect the Broncos to try and mix some things up and run a bit more up tempo offense to try and get the Chargers on their heels.
The Chargers’ defense has been a disappointment this season, although some of that can be chalked up to the injury to Joey Bosa. But they have been getting gashed in the run game and rank dead last in yards per carry allowed to RBs at 6.2. They have allowed a 40+ yard TD run in three straight games. We saw a Browns offense that can be limited at times in the pass game, score 28 points on this Charger defense last week and one of the worst offenses in the NFL in the Texans, put up 24 two weeks ago. Without Bosa, this defense is getting to the QB at the 8th lowest rate in the NFL. I expect Wilson to have a clean pocket to find his explosive WRs down the field. The Broncos for all of their offensive woes, rank 4th in explosive pass percentage.
Denver is actually the 5th-worst run defense at 5.1 ypc allowed. The Broncos couldn’t stop Josh Jacobs two weeks ago in their loss in Las Vegas. When the Broncos have played at home, they’ve been incredible, allowing only 1 TD and 31 total points in three games of action. In two road games, however, opponents have scored 24.5 points per game. Now they have to face this explosive Chargers offense without multiple key defenders out with injuries. Edge rusher Randy Gregory missed last week’s game and is out again. His backup, Barron Browning, played well against the Colts but he is Questionable with a wrist injury while starting LB Josey Jewel is also Questionable. In the secondary, they likely won’t get back starting Safety Justin Simmons this week and they lost starting CB Ronald Darby for the season. We all want Herbert and the Chargers staff to open up the offense more down the field but they are 12th in explosive pass percentage and can get the ball down the field when needed. Both teams should be able to exploit each other’s secondaries.
Under Staley, Chargers games have gone over the total in 10 of 12 contests in which the over/under was less than 50. This is a cheap number for a Chargers game.
Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers expert predictions
Clevta has been a successful NFL handicapper for more than a decade. His approach is a combination of bottoms-up fundamental team and matchup analytics along with a deep knowledge of the betting market to help drive success.
He has been a regular contestant in the Westgate NFL Supercontest and Circa Millions, in which he has posted an aggregate 56% winning percentage, including 4 separate seasons with a win percentage of at least 60%. Now he brings his expert NFL handicapping skills to Pickswise.
You can find more of Clevta’s weekly NFL game analysis at ClevAnalytics.com.
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