Clevta’s Cowboys vs Giants best bet: Over 39 points (-110)
Over 39 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
I was as strong of a Giants supporter this offseason as anyone. I have their season win total over as well as a longshot 9-1 ticket on them to win the NFC East from May. It was all about positive injury regression, one of the easiest schedules in the NFL and a major upgrade at head coach with the arrival of Brian Daboll. We have already seen many of those things coming true early this season and I just can’t bet against them right now, especially with Dallas QB Cooper Rush playing on the road. I am looking to the total as a potential play instead.
There are some injury concerns on both defenses as well as a returning player on offense that I think squeezes out some value to the over. The Giants are potentially missing their best defender in DT Leonard Williams, who has missed most of practice this week. I think CeeDee Lamb along with RBs Zeke Elliot and Tony Pollard having more success than normal with Williams out, the Cowboys can attack this defense successfully.
Rush will be going up against a Wink Martindale defense that loves to blitz and currently does so at the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL. Rush has proved he can stand in the pocket against the rush and was 9/10 for 90 yards and 1 TD against the Bengals’ blitz last week. There could be opportunities for big plays if he’s able to beat the blitz. Also, he could certainly make a big mistake or two versus those blitz packages and that could lead to defensive points. Carolina’s Baker Mayfield struggled last week but in Week 1 Ryan Tannehill was able to routinely shred this Giants secondary.
The Giants are not likely to light up a scoreboard, but they may catch a break with the Cowboys’ star edge rusher Micah Parsons currently dealing with an illness. I am sure he will play, but that could potentially limit him a bit. I think the Giants will continue to feature RB Saquon Barkley and nobody is more dangerous than Barkley when he gets the ball in his hands. He has 7 rushes of 10+ yards including 2 of more than 30 yards. It also could help if Giants QB Daniel Jones makes some mistakes and he is going up against a ball-hawking defense that led the NFL in EPA gained from turnovers forced last season. Trevon Diggs will certainly be looking to create big plays on defense.
Sometimes you will see a low-total game end up going over because of defensive turnovers as well as a bunch of 3 and outs which lead to short fields and ultimately more scoring. Since 2015, totals of 39 or less in division games are 20-13-1 (61%) to the over.
Be sure to check out our full Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants predictions
Clevta has been a successful NFL handicapper for more than a decade. His approach is a combination of bottoms-up fundamental team and matchup analytics along with a deep knowledge of the betting market to help drive success.
He has been a regular contestant in the Westgate NFL Supercontest and Circa Millions, in which he has posted an aggregate 56% winning percentage, including 4 separate seasons with a win percentage of at least 60%. Now he brings his expert NFL handicapping skills to Pickswise.
You can find more of Clevta’s weekly NFL game analysis at ClevAnalytics.com.
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