Clevta’s Broncos vs Seahawks best bet: Seahawks +6.5 (-110)
Seahawks +6.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
I understand this is a revenge spot for Russell Wilson as he now leads the Broncos, but I think this number has gotten far ahead of itself. I have this spread more like Denver -5.5, so there is a good amount of value around the key number of 6. If you can buy it for -125 or less at +7, I would do that.
It is challenging to assume that a team will be clicking on all cylinders immediately with a new QB coming into a new system after 10 years in Seattle with a brand-new head coach, OC and offensive weapons. There is inevitably going to be some rust, and considering that Wilson didn’t take a single snap in the preseason, I’m not expecting the smoothest start to the game. Add in the fact that the Seattle coaching staff knows every weakness of Russ and is best prepared to slow him down, and I think Seattle has a shot to keep this competitive.
It may take some time for the Denver offense to put together long drives, but eventually, they will. This Seattle defense is weak at pass rush and the CB spot, but again the schematic advantage they will have over Wilson should help keep things in check.
I also believe the market is undervaluing Seattle QB, Geno Smith. He came into a tough situation last year halfway through a Thursday night game against the Rams and played well in his 3.5-game stint. He was only 26th in EPA per dropback out of 45 QBs last season, but he was 2nd in completion percentage over expected. Geno ended up with the same PFF grade as Russell Wilson. With a clean pocket, Geno was 6th in the NFL in PFF grade, and he posted the 2nd highest big-time throw percentage with a clean pocket. What’s even more impressive is that he did it against a tough slate of defenses, having to face three top 8 DVOA pass defenses in the Rams, Steelers and Saints.
Geno continued his solid play with an excellent preseason. He posted the 4th highest PFF grade, 5th highest percentage of big-time throws and zero turnover-worthy plays on 45 dropbacks in the preseason. With two stellar WRs in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, along with a good run game behind Rashad Penny, who posted one of the best end-of-season stretches in the last 20 years, I believe this Seattle offense can compete very well. Metcalf was the beneficiary of 5 receiving TDs with Smith at QB, while Lockett exploded with a 12 reception 142-yard performance against Jacksonville.
The Seattle OL is likely a work in progress, but there is an undeniable promise with rookies LT Charles Cross and RT Abraham Lucas. Both played very well in the preseason, allowing 0 sacks on over 250 combined pass block snaps.
The Denver defense is solid, but there will be a drop-off with the loss of head coach and defensive demon Vic Fangio. His cover 2 scheme has led to the league-wide craze that we have seen against the Chiefs and other big play offenses. There is no way the Broncos’ defense will confuse offenses the way Fangio could.
Wilson is 13-16-2 ATS in his career as a road favorite of over 3 points, 4-11 ATS since 2016. Road favorites of at least 6 points in Week 1 have gone 5-8 ATS in the last 10 years. Road favorites of at least 6 points on MNF have gone only 19-21 ATS since 2002.
Be sure to check out our full Denver Broncos vs Seattle Seahawks predictions
Clevta has been a successful NFL handicapper for over a decade. His approach is a combination of bottoms-up fundamental team and matchup analytics along with a deep knowledge of the betting market to help drive success.
He has been a regular contestant in the Westgate NFL Supercontest and Circa Millions, where he has posted an aggregate 56% winning percentage, including four separate seasons with a win percentage of at least 60%. Now he brings his expert NFL handicapping skills to Pickswise.
You can find more of Clevta’s weekly NFL game analysis at ClevAnalytics.com.
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