Ricky Dimon
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The Week 11 installment Monday Night Football pits the Houston Texans against the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium in Dallas. Things have gone south in a hurry for both of these Texas-based teams. Even Houston is struggling with 3 losses in its last 4 games, but a 6-4 record is by no means terrible. Dallas’ woes are far greater and more well documented; it has dropped 4 in a row and the season is all but over at 3-6 and with Dak Prescott out for the year.
Here is my Same Game Parlay for the festivities, which get underway at 8:15 pm ET on ESPN. Also be sure to check out our full Texans vs Cowboys predictions.
Texans -7.5 (-104)
Joe Mixon to record 100+ rushing yards (+154)
Rico Dowdle Over 53.5 rushing yards (-113)
Parlay odds: +713
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Houston running back Joe Mixon having a big day would obviously work well with a win and cover by the Texans. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with backing Dallas RB Rico Dowdle to rack up his fair share of rushing yards. But even if he does, there is no reason why the visitors can’t take care of business. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
Texans -7.5 (-104)
There is no other way to say it: the Cowboys are awful. They were bad pretty much from the jump and now they are even worse, losers of 4 straight. Prescott is done until 2025 because of a hamstring injury, so Cooper Rush is in under center. Talk about adding insult to injury (or vice versa)! Head coach Mike McCarthy’s contract is up at the end of the season, so it goes without saying that he won’t be returning to Dallas. No one is going to completely give up, but the Cowboys have nothing to play for (other than a top draft pick) and they have presumably tuned out their outgoing head coach. Things are nowhere near as bad for the Texans. They have dropped 2 in a row, but they were competitive against the Detroit Lions last week – and Detroit is the best team in the NFC if not in the entire NFL. Dallas consistently gets blown out at home; it will probably endure that same fate on Monday night.
Joe Mixon to record 100+ rushing yards (+154)
Mixon will be eager to get back on track after being limited to 1.8 yards per rush by the Lions last week. The Texans will surely want to get him going right away on Monday. Regardless of what happened in the most recent outing, Mixon should be a huge part of this particularly gameplan. After all, the Cowboys are dreadful against the run. They are #31 in the NFL in rushing defense at 152.1 yards per game and have given up the second-most touchdowns on the ground (15). As for Mixon, it’s safe to say that Week 10 was an aberration as opposed to the rule. The former Oklahoma standout had previously exceeded the 100-yard mark in 4 consecutive games and has done it 5 times in 7 outings so far this year. It should also be noted that even though Detroit’s run defense was dominant last weekend, Mixon still scored a TD and had 44 receiving yards. He is rolling right now, and it should continue against the Cowboys.
Rico Dowdle Over 53.5 rushing yards (-113)
Rush is not a good quarterback, and Houston boasts a stellar defense. As such, this is a game script that should be right up Dowdle’s ally. Dallas will have to keep the ball on the ground early and often. Dowdle has gained at least 53 yards in 3 of the last 4 contest, including performances of 75 and 87 yards. The Texans are allowing the 11th-most yards per carry to opponents this season, so this is a nice spot for the South Carolina product. Meanwhile, Ezekiel Elliott has been terrible and even lost a fumble last week against Philadelphia. He should be phased out of the offense, giving Dowdle even more opportunities.
