Ricky Dimon
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Week 10 of the 2023 NFL wraps up with Monday Night Football between the Denver Broncos and Buffalo Bills. Somewhat surprisingly, these 2 teams are separated by only 1.5 games in the standings. Denver has suddenly won two in a row, while Buffalo has dropped 3 of its last 5 and comes in with a modest 5-4 record.
If the Bills want to stay within striking distance in the AFC East or even put themselves inside the current playoff cut line, they pretty much have to win on Monday. Here is my Same Game Parlay for the festivities, which kick off at 8:15 pm ET on ABC. Also be sure to check out our full Broncos vs Bills predictions.
Broncos +7 (-105)
Javonte Williams to record 90+ rushing yards (+320)
Stefon Diggs to score a touchdown (-110)
Parlay odds: +1078
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Denver running back Javonte Williams churning out his fair share of rushing yards would obviously work well with a Broncos cover. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with backing Buffalo wide receiver Stefon Diggs to score a touchdown. But even if he does, there is no reason why the visitors can’t be competitive. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
Broncos +7 (-105)
The Bills are still rated highly by the media and by the sportsbooks, because…well…they are the Bills. Expectations have been sky high the last few years. Buffalo failed to live up to them in the playoffs and now this team is even coming up short in the regular season. The 2023 campaign has been a disappointment so far and it could be even worse if Josh Allen and company and not escaped a terrible Giants team in Week 6 thanks to a missed pass interference on the last play of the game. Allen is clearly bothered by a shoulder injury. Only one quarterback in the NFL has been worse at pass attempts of 15 yards or more down the field in the last month. That would be none other than Jets signal-caller Zach Wilson. Meanwhile, the Broncos have won 2 in a row (including a victory over the Chiefs) and they are coming off a bye. Give me Denver to cover.
Javonte Williams to record 90+ rushing yards (+320)
The Bills’ injuries on defense continue to loom large and they aren’t a great run defense even when healthy. Whereas Buffalo is in the top 10 in passing defense, it is in the middle of the road against the run – allowing an alarming 4.9 yards attempt. Williams should be able to take advantage. He has racked up 82 and 85 rushing yards over the past 2 weeks and got a ridiculous 27 carries during a Week 8 win over Kansas City. If the former North Carolina standout keeps getting a similar workload, reaching the 90-yard mark is well within reason both this week and moving forward.
Stefon Diggs to score a touchdown (-110)
Denver’s defense stinks and Buffalo’s is nothing special (especially given the injuries), so there could be a lot of points scored on Monday night. As such, I’m not concerned with the Broncos’ ability to cover the touchdown spread even if Diggs finds the endzone for the Bills. And he probably will. The former Maryland star has already scored 7 touchdowns this year, including 6 in the last 6 games. Denver is 27th in the NFL against the pass and has given up 17 TDs through the air. Only 3 teams have surrendered more in 2023.
