NFL Week 8 concludes with the Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland Browns on Monday Night Football at 8:15pm ET on ESPN and our NFL expert Clevta has a best bet and predictions for the game.
Clevta’s Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns best bet: Browns +3.5 (-115)
I was ready to pull the trigger on Browns +3.5 even before the Ja’mar Chase news. Denzel Ward is out but it’s not as big a worry since Chase is out. Greg Newsome is fine handling Tee Higgins and the Browns can throw rookie Martin Emerson outside as well or they can swap. Emerson has been excellent, ranking 16th among NFL CBs in PFF coverage grade. If I could trade Ward being out for Chase I would make that swap all day. I have Chase only behind Justin Jefferson, Cooper Kupp and Davante Adams in terms of value to a team’s spread.
The Browns should be able to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball which should keep them in this game. They run on pretty much everybody so the Bengals run defense that ranks 16th in success rate and 23rd in EPA is not an exception. The Bengals clearly miss DT DJ Reader, who is their best run stuffer. He is out again and since he went down in week 3, the Bengals have allowed opponents to rush for 5.08 ypc. That includes Alvin Kamara’s 19 for 99 yards, the best RB they have faced in that stretch. They did face the Ravens but they don’t have a RB attack like the Browns. Nick Chubb has feasted on this Bengals defense the last three matchups, rushing for 319 yards on 45 attempts (7.1 ypc) and four rushing TDs.
The Browns defense has been able to slow down this Bengals offense as well, under Joe Burrow. He posted his 4th worst game of last season against this Browns team, by EPA, and has never won a start against them. The Bengals will surely move the football but without Chase but it won’t be a cake walk. To start the season, the Bengals OL was killing Burrow and frankly Burrow was killing Burrow by holding onto the ball too long. After taking 13 sacks in the first two games he has only been sacked a total of 11 times in the last five. But look at the pass rushing defenses he has faced lately. The Ravens, Dolphins, Saints and Falcons all rank in the bottom seven of the NFL in pressure rate. The Browns aren’t a ton better than those teams but none of those teams possess a 1-2 edge rush tandem like Myles Garrett and Jadaveon Clowney. Those defenses have one player (Jalean Philips) ranked in the top 40 among edge rushers in pressure rate. Garrett is 6th in the NFL in pressure % and #1 in PFF pass rush grade.
Based on 4th quarter win share, the Browns have played more like a 3.6 win team and not one with only 2 wins. That win% versus 4th quarter win share is the 3rd lowest rate in the NFL, only behind the Jags. They have lost four games by three points or less of their five losses. I certainly won’t stand here and pick the Browns to win but just the nature of how they play close to the vest, can control clock with the run and a frenzied home crowd on MNF, getting 3.5 points here is a good side to be on. The Browns have only lost four times out of 21 home games by more than 3 points at home under Kevin Stefanski since 2020.
Clevta’s best Monday Night Football prop bet: Nick Chubb anytime touchdown scorer (-120)
I think with the rumors of a Kareem Hunt trade, there is a shot he is either traded Monday morning before the game or they deactivate him so he doesn’t get hurt so that they can trade him before the deadline on Tuesday. Hunt has been taking plenty of goal line attempts away from Chubb so if he doesn’t play, Chubb will likely get them all and there’s value here.
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Clevta has been a successful NFL handicapper for over a decade. His approach is a combination of bottoms-up fundamental team and matchup analytics along with a deep knowledge of the betting market to help drive success.
He has been a regular contestant in the Westgate NFL Supercontest and Circa Millions, where he has posted an aggregate 56% winning percentage, including four separate seasons with a win percentage of at least 60%. Now he brings his expert NFL handicapping skills to Pickswise.
You can find more of Clevta’s weekly NFL game analysis at ClevAnalytics.com.
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