NFL Week 9 concludes with the Baltimore Ravens visiting the New Orleans Saints on Monday Night Football at 8:15 pm ET on ESPN and our NFL expert Clevta has a best bet and predictions for the game.
Don’t miss out on our best touchdown scorer bets for Ravens-Saints — we went 2-0 last MNF!
Clevta’s Baltimore Ravens vs New Orleans Saints best bet: Saints +2 (-110)
The Saints have been one of my most undervalued teams all season, and on a net success rate standpoint they rank as the 2nd-best team in the NFL. The Saints’ issue has been turnovers, where they are last in TO margin, 31st in EPA given up on offense due to turnovers and 32nd in defensive turnovers created. So not only are they committing high leverage and very costly turnovers (3 def TDs on Saints turnovers), but they are also not taking the ball away at all on defense. Turnovers are a stat that typically regress during a year, so the Saints are hoping that continues from last week’s shutout win over the Raiders.
The Saints should be able to continue to move the ball, and since Andy Dalton took over in week 4 they rank 3rd best in the NFL in offensive success rate. They have scored at least 24 points in each of his 5 starts on offense and are averaging 33.6 ppg during this stretch. They should have success on this Ravens defense that is 27th in EPA allowed and bottom 10 in both run and pass efficiency.
Don’t miss our Ravens vs Saints Same Game Parlay (+896 odds!)
New Orleans also matches up nicely on defense with athletic LBs like Demario Davis, who can at least track Lamar Jackson a little bit. The Saints have been a top 5 run defense the last two seasons and sit #1 in EPA per rush this season. They can handle this run offense without JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards, but — like every Ravens game — it’s just a matter of not allowing those big Lamar runs.
The Ravens are missing Rashod Bateman and Mark Andrews, which are huge blows to an already struggling pass offense. Rookie Isaiah Likely will look to pick up the slack at TE, but the Saints are #1 in lowest yards per target allowed to TEs. They are also #1 in the NFL in DVOA defending against TEs. This is just a really solid matchup for the Saints overall. And let’s not ignore the tremendous noise that the Ravens will be dealing with at the Superdome in primetime. That always is an advantage for the home defense that can get off quickly with a pass rush.
Don’t miss Prop Holliday’s MNF Ravens vs Saints best player props
NFL Week 9 Promo Codes
- BetMGM Promo Code: Bet $10 Win $200 if either NFL Team scores a TD
- DraftKings Promo Code: Bet $5+ On Any NFL Pre-Game ML, Get $200 If Your Bet Wins
- FanDuel Promo Code: No Sweat First Bet up to $1,000 on NFL
- Caesars Promo Code: Up To $1,250 Back On Your First Bet + 1000 Tier Credits + 1000 Reward Credits®
- PointsBet Promo Code: Get 4x $200 Second-Chance Bets For The NFL
Find all the latest Sportsbook Promo Codes and Bonuses for NFL Week 9, including sportsbooks live in your state.
Clevta has been a successful NFL handicapper for over a decade. His approach is a combination of bottoms-up fundamental team and matchup analytics along with a deep knowledge of the betting market to help drive success.
He has been a regular contestant in the Westgate NFL Supercontest and Circa Millions, where he has posted an aggregate 56% winning percentage, including four separate seasons with a win percentage of at least 60%. Now he brings his expert NFL handicapping skills to Pickswise.
You can find more of Clevta’s weekly NFL game analysis at ClevAnalytics.com.
Pickswise is the home of free NFL Picks and NFL Odds. Check out the latest NFL Prop Bets and NFL Parlays as well as expert NFL Underdog Picks and NFL Computer Picks.
