Ricky Dimon
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Week 5 in the 2022 NFL season concludes with an AFC West showdown between the Las Vegas Raiders and Kansas City Chiefs. The Raiders come in at 1-3, but they at least managed to beat the Broncos last weekend to end their status as the league’s only 0-3 team. At the other end of the division spectrum are the Chiefs, who are 3-1.
Below is our SGP for Monday Night Football, and also be sure to check out our full Raiders vs Chiefs picks on the side and total.
Kansas City Chiefs ML (-330)
Darren Waller 0ver 50.5 receiving yards (-114)
Darren Waller to score a touchdown (+230)
Parlay odds: +594
Part of the value in Same Game Parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. However, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with backing Raiders tight end Darren Waller to have a big game, but even if that happens there is no reason why the Chiefs can’t get the job done. Let’s break down each of these legs one by one.
Kansas City Chiefs ML (-330) over Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders’ defense ranks 24th in the NFL EPA on drop-backs, 30th in yards per attempt allowed adjusted by opponent, has allowed the 4th-highest rate of explosive passes and is 28th in pressure rate. That’s not a recipe for success when you are about to go up against Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and the rest of KC’s offensive weapons. The Chiefs are rolling on offense, sitting #1 in EPA. They will likely torch a LV defense has let every opponent post at least 23 points. The Cardinals and Broncos have scored their most points this season against the Raiders. In fact, a Broncos offense that has struggled to score on anybody so far in 2022 was able to pin 23 on the Raiders. On the other side of the ball, Derek Carr has been a big disappointment this year – especially considering that the front office gave him Davante Adams to work with.
Lock in our best player props for Raiders vs Chiefs
Darren Waller over 50.5 receiving yards (-114)
Darren Waller having a lot of success on Monday night may not correlate with a Chiefs win on paper, but it really doesn’t conflict that much – if at all. In fact, if the Chiefs seize an early lead and maintain it the whole way then Car and the Raiders will be airing it out from start to finish. Waller is perhaps Carr’s favorite target, so the former Georgia Tech star should get plenty of opportunities to rack up statistics in this contest. He has had success against the Chiefs in the past and I expect him to find holes in their secondary once again.
Darren Waller to score a touchdown (+230)
Waller has 1 touchdown this season. He has been targeted at least 5 times in all 4 contests, including 6 on one occasion and 8 on another. The standout tight end has found the end zone in 2 of his last 3 games against Kansas City and in 1 of the 2020 head-to-head encounters he grabbed all 7 targets for 88 yards. In 2019 he had a 7-reception, 100-yard effort at the Chiefs’ expense. Getting a Waller TD this far into plus-money is a steal.
Check out our Raiders vs Chiefs touchdown scorer best bets
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