NFL MNF Chicago Bears vs New England Patriots Same Game Parlay (+725 odds): Bears can keep it close

Week 6 was another eventful weekend of games across the NFL, and this week should be no different. To close out the Week 7 slate, we are getting back on the Same Game Parlay train, this time for a battle between the Chicago Bears and New England Patriots on Monday Night Football. With kickoff set for 8:15 pm ET on ESPN, it’s time to forecast the action.

Here is our SGP, but also be sure to check out our NFL picks on the side and total for every Week 7 matchup.

Chicago Bears +8 (-105)

Under 40.5 (-110)

Rhamondre Stevenson anytime touchdown scorer (-145)

Parlay odds: +725

Part of the value in same game parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. However, it actually adds more value if you can predict the game script that both teams will want to play. Let’s break down each of these legs one by one.

Chicago Bears +8 (-105) vs New England Patriots

The Patriots have won their last two games by a combined 52 points, which has clearly affected market perception of them. It’s always scary backing a young QB such as Justin Fields against Bill Belichick, but his defenses have historically struggled to stop quarterbacks that can run the ball effectively. And while Fields shouldn’t post huge scoring numbers, the second-year quarterback’s mobility and ability to run for first downs can help to extend drives for Chicago.

This game is likely to be very slow with two teams that have rush rates over expected in the top 10 of the NFL. Mac Jones’ return for New England should also cater more for the underdog, as he won’t be fully mobile with his injured ankle. In a game with this much rushing expected, there’s naturally less time for the favorite to create such a big margin. The Patriots defense can be burned by explosive pass plays as well, allowing the 4th-highest rate in the NFL. A few explosive plays on the ground should be just enough for Chicago to cover this inflated spread.

Be sure to check out our full Chicago Bears vs New England Patriots predictions

Under 40.5 (-110)

Neither of these teams is setting records offensively, and I anticipate that continuing on Monday. Chicago is 20th in yards per play this season and a woeful 31st in first downs averaged per game. While they run the ball often, the running game hasn’t been nearly as strong as the Bears would have hoped and often puts Chicago in difficult positions on 3rd down. Furthermore, the Bears still can’t move the ball downfield consistently through the air, averaging just 144 passing yards per game.

On the other hand, New England’s defense is playing its best football of late, following a 2-game stretch in which the Patriots allowed their opponents to score a combined 15 points. Fields is still having trouble at the controls of the Bears offense in his second season and Chicago’s passing game should be neutralized by this stout New England secondary now featuring rookie cornerback Jack Jones. Regression may be coming for this Patriots offense as well. In a game that should be close throughout, I like this number at the key number of 40 or better.

Get our best touchdown scorer bets for Bears vs Patriots, including one at +360 odds!

Rhamondre Stevenson anytime touchdown scorer (-145)

After a slow start to the season, Rhamondre Stevenson has clearly established himself as the feature running back in this offense. Stevenson has taken the reigns from Damien Harris and not looked back, averaging 15 carries per game over the last 4 contests. With Stevenson tallying over 5 yards per carry since becoming the starter, his production in the red zone has also increased, to the tune of 3 touchdowns over the last 4 games. With New England’s offense continuing to be predicated on the ground game, I expect Stevenson to continue to see most of the red zone touches, which gives this number some value.

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