There are a lot of different storylines happening in this game. Tyreek Hill’s return to Kansas City, Tua Tagovailoa can’t play in the cold, or the Chiefs dynasty is slowly crumbling…. Take your pick. However, one thing you should know about this game is that it will be absolutely freezing. The forecast has Kansas City around zero degrees on Saturday night, but with 15-30 MPH winds it is expected to feel like -30 degrees.
Let’s get into my +545 Same Game Parlay that I made at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Tua Tagovailoa Under 237.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Patrick Mahomes Under 252.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Under 35.5 (+285)
Same Game Parlay odds: +545
Tua Tagovailoa Under 237.5 Passing Yards (-114)
There’s a stereotype going around that Tua Tagovailoa can’t perform in the cold weather. Well, it’s sort of true. Tagovailoa has struggled in the cold weather in his short NFL career, and his stats back it up. In fact, the Dolphins have lost their last 10 straight games when the kickoff temperature is below 40 degrees. Saturday’s showdown will be well below that mark, as the forecast has Kansas City projected to be around zero degrees at kickoff. However, the wind will be howling at Arrowhead and it is expected to feel like -30. Whether it’s Tagovailoa or a different quarterback, it will be difficult to throw the ball if they can’t feel their hands. Plus, he has stayed under this number in 3 of Miami’s last 4 games. I’m expecting both teams to keep the ball on the ground a lot since that appears to be the best way to win in these frigid conditions.
Check out Saturday’s Wild Card player prop picks
Patrick Mahomes Under 252.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Most of the reasons for the pick above apply to this pick, as well. Patrick Mahomes is far more used to the cold weather since he has played in Kansas City his entire career, but still, a “feels like” temperature around -20 or -30 is completely different than any game he’s ever played in. Plus, the Kansas City offense is a lot less dynamic than Miami’s. If the Fins can limit Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice, Mahomes will have to rely on Justin Watson, Noah Gray and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. That’s not ideal for a playoff game. That means Isiah Pacheco will get plenty of touches on the ground. Even without the cold weather, Mahomes has stayed below this line in 7 of Kansas City’s last 9 games.
Under 35.5 (+285)
If you can’t tell already, the theme of this game is cold weather. Below-freezing temperatures usually affect games, but the wind chill should completely change how this one will be played. Winds ranging from 15-30 MPH will be howling throughout the night and that will make it hard to pass. Also, Kansas City receivers have been struggling with drops this season — leading the NFL in that department. I don’t care how many hand-warmers the receivers use; the cold weather will still be a problem. If both teams rely on the run game, I don’t see how this game gets past 35 points.
Check out our Miami Dolphins vs Kansas City Chiefs predictions
