Andrew Ortenberg
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The NFL Week 4 slate is here, and with it we have arguably the most anticipated matchup of the young season as the Buffalo Bills get ready to host the Miami Dolphins. It’s not only a division rivalry game, but it’s also a matchup between 2 potential Super Bowl contenders. And what better way to celebrate the occasion than by betting a Same Game Parlay? Here we go:
Miami Dolphins -6.5 alternate spread (+320)
Tua Tagovailoa to throw for 300+ yards (+182)
Parlay odds: +1097
We have a 2-leg Same Game Parlay which pays out at north of 10/1 with FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s break it down.
Miami Dolphins -6.5 alternate spread (+320)
The Dolphins have looked like arguably the best team in the league so far this season, and with how explosive their offense is they definitely make sense as a team to target on an alt spread. I mean, they did just beat the Broncos by 50 points last week. But this play isn’t a reaction to just 1 game; the Dolphins’ offense has also looked great against the Chargers and Patriots. Tyreek Hill is impossible to slow down with all the creative ways Miami uses him, and Mike McDaniel has finally gotten the team’s ground game going, as well.
I’m not ready to declare Buffalo all the way back just because it has beaten the Raiders and Commanders the past couple of weeks. The last time the Bills faced a more competitive team, they got embarrassed by the Jets in Week 1 as Josh Allen threw 3 interceptions. They have put up big point totals the past two weeks, but I’m not convinced all the issues with their offense have been solved.
Even after the 2 wins over Las Vegas and Washington, Allen is still averaging just 6.6 yards per attempt for the season with as many fumbles and interceptions as touchdowns.
Tua Tagovailoa to throw for 300+ yards (+182)
All we need to cash this parlay at better than 10/1 odds is one big game from the Dolphins’ offense, and that certainly isn’t too rare a sight these days. Tagovailoa is averaging a ridiculous 10.1 yards per attempt and 341 yards per game through 3 contests, and I don’t see any reason to believe he won’t be able to keep the magic going today. Last week he threw for over 300 yards and 4 touchdowns, and that was without Jaylen Waddle in the lineup.
Now Waddle is back in the fold to give him his full complement of weapons against a Bills defense that isn’t at full strength. It’s cool that Damar Hamlin is going to be making his season debut here, but that’s only happening because Buffalo is banged up in the secondary — which bodes well for Tagovailoa.
McDaniel is going to put Tagovailoa in good positions, and Hill and Waddle are going to make plays for him. Everything is set up perfectly for the QB, and he is facing a Bills defense that I don’t think is quite as good as its reputation. The 3 quarterbacks Buffalo has faced this year are Zach Wilson, Jimmy Garoppolo and Sam Howell. This is a big step up for the Bills.
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a Same Game Parlay and where can I bet it?
