Waiting all day for… Saturday Night Football? That’s right, we have NFL action on Saturday! The 3-game slate is highlighted by the AFC East battle between the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills in upstate New York. The weather is forecasted to be less than ideal — meaning snow, wind and freezing temperatures. I’ve crafted a Same Game Parlay that pays out at over 10/1 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, so let’s get into it!
Under 43.5 (-110)
Tyreek Hill to score a touchdown (+175)
Tua Tagovailoa under 236.5 passing yards (-114)
Same Game Parlay odds: +1069
Part of the value in Same Game Parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. However, having some legs go against each other actually drives up the payout. Let’s break down each of the SGP legs.
This Dolphins vs Bills Same Game Parlay is available at FanDuel Sportsbook, which has the best odds at +1069. FanDuel is one of the most popular sportsbooks around and gives great odds on Same Game Parlays. New users can sign up here for a No Sweat $1,000 Bet.
Under 43.5 (-110)
We’re in for a classic winter weather game in Buffalo on Saturday night as 1-3 inches of snow is due. But that’s not all, as 10-20 MPH winds will also be howling at Highmark Stadium. That makes for perfect conditions for the under in this divisional battle. The Dolphins are coming off an embarrassing defeat in Week 14 as their 23-17 loss to the Chargers sounds close, but it never was. I would argue it was Tua Tagovailoa’s worst start of his career, as he was held to just 10 completions all game. He was throwing it to receivers that had their backs turned to him or were never expecting the ball, and it became clear he had no chemistry with his receiving corps. Add in the winter weather conditions on Saturday, and I see the Dolphins struggling on offense.
For an offense as dynamic as the Bills, they’ve been involved in a lot of low-scoring battles this season. Ten of their 13 games have stayed below the total, including 9 of their last 11. This will likely be a run-heavy game that will eat away at the clock, so the under is the first leg of this Same Game Parlay.
Be sure to check out our full Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills predictions
Tyreek Hill to score a touchdown (+175)
It’s hard to ignore the exceptional value we are getting on the fastest player in the league to score. Tyreek Hill has scored in 4 of Miami’s last 5 games and continues to see nearly 10 targets per game. With the inclement weather on Saturday night, I expect Hill to see more targets on short passes and even a few end-arounds to utilize his speed. The best time to put those plays into motion with Hill is in the red zone so that he can get past the line of scrimmage and only have a few yards to go before the end zone. This could be the highest we see Hill’s touchdown scorer prop all season, and although it won’t be in ideal conditions, he should still be able to find a way to score.
Tua Tagovailoa under 236.5 passing yards (-114)
To say that Tua Tagovailoa was bad on Sunday Night Football would be an understatement. He was missing receivers left and right by several yards — not inches or feet. That’s hard to do when he has elite speed at his receivers like Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle. He was just 10/28 as the Chargers’ below-average secondary completely shut Tagovailoa down. That’s now back-to-back weeks that the former Alabama star has had a poor performance, as he was 18/33 with a 19.8 QBR against the Bengals’ defense in Week 13.
And speaking of Alabama, when Tagovailoa was asked about playing in the snow on Saturday night, he said “It snows in Alabama.” That may be true, but he’s about to enter the tundra on Saturday with snow, wind and a temperature of about 25 degrees. He’s had two bad weeks in a row, and I think Buffalo can make it three.
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