Matt Wiesenfeld
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Its week 9 and with San Francisco winning on Thursday night we still have a couple of undefeated teams heading into the weekend. That could change with New England taking on the Ravens, who always play them tough. Let’s take a look at all the lines and see what is happening in the market.
Texans @ Jaguars
Open: Texans -3
Current: Texans -1.5
The tickets are on Houston but the money on Jacksonville. This is an important division game in the AFC South which looks like it will be a close race. Houston lost a key cog with JJ Watt going down for the rest of the season last week. They are going to be even more reliant on Deshaun Watson which is not such a bad thing.
Bears @ Eagles
Open: Eagles -3
Current: Eagles -4.5
Moving off three is always a significant move but the fact it moved a little further less so. Nobody is hot on the Bears right now while the Eagles might have saved their season with that win in Buffalo, and they looked good doing it. Back home this week they are getting 70% of the money so far. It might even move a little more but we are in a dead zone right now.
Vikings @ Chiefs
Open: Chiefs -3.5
Current: Chiefs -2
The availability of Patrick Mahones is the key here. Matt Moore may be getting more comfortable guiding the offense but they are more limited with him doing so. KC has a great home-field which helps make them the favorite here but if Mahomes becomes ready to go this line will move in a hurry. Keep your eyes on your favorite NFL news source.
Redskins @ Bills
Open: Bills -10
Current: Bills -9.5
The Bills host a second NFC East team this weekend. Philly had their number last week but Washington seems unlikely to follow suit. Not a surprise that we have seen the number come down some as the Buffalo offense just isn’t really built to cover those kinds of numbers. Even against Miami they struggled with a big spread and needed late scores just to win. The market might sour on Buffalo as game time approaches and they are reminded of last week’s loss.
Colts @ Steelers
Open: Pick’em
Current: Colts -1
Picking against the Steelers at home seems to go against the laws of the universe but this team stumbled early against Miami and just isn’t at the level we are accustomed to. Indy might be the third-best team in the AFC and that has to count for something. They are getting the majority of the tickets and money too so this one might keep moving until we get closer to three.
Titans @ Panthers
Open: Panthers -4.5
Current: Panthers -3.5
There has been a full point move which I assume is based on the market as the majority of the tickets and money have been on the Titans. People seem to be inspired by the move they made at quarterback but I am not one of them and see them as a definite fade, especially if you can get this down to three. There are going to be a lot of teasers featuring Carolina this week and that could influence the number as well.
Jets @ Dolphins
Open: Jets -6.5
Current: Jets -3.5
This looks like a big line move but essentially you are still needing the Jets to win by more than a field goal. New York is getting the majority of the money so that must mean the smart money is on Miami. I think people are fooling themselves into believing in the team that went up 14-0 against Pitt and forgetting that they then gave up 27 unanswered points. Don’t get caught up in it.
Bucs @ Seahawks
Open: Seahawks -5.5
Current: Seahawks -5
The majority of the money (70%) is on Tampa but it has not really moved the line much. That doesn’t change the fact that Seattle can be a house of horrors for visitors or that Bucs QB Jameis Winston is so casual with the ball. Seattle may not be elite but at home, with Russell Wilson, they are very hard to beat.
Lions @ Raiders
Open: Pick’em
Current: Raiders -2.5
This looks like a money play with more on the home team right now. It is not so lopsided but once we move anywhere of a pick it can move more than you realized. When a game is less than three points you can play it like a pick’em anyway. These are two teams that are just hard to believe in so I am not sure it will draw a lot of action. Nice for teasers though.
Browns @ Broncos
Open: Broncos -1.5
Current: Browns -3.5
The Broncos are bad, we know that, but how good is Cleveland. They have not played anywhere near their hype and we have probably all been burned at least once. This one has moved a lot on the thought that even though their defense is solid Denver just won’t be able to move the ball. Hard to argue but backing the Browns is not too much fun either.
Packers @ Chargers
Open: Packers -4
Current: Packers -3.5
Not much movement here. I am still not a big believer in Green Bay but the markets love them this week, over 80% of the tickets and money so far. Still, the line has dropped a little so I am not the only skeptic out there. San Diego has been a huge disappointment but at some point, they have to say enough is enough, right?
Patriots @ Ravens
Open: Patriots -6.5
Current: Patriots -3
A big adjustment here, especially when you look at the way New England has been whipping teams. I acknowledge that the Ravens have had as much as success as any team against New England over the years but I still don’t like the spot. The “Hoodie” will have something ready for Lamar Jackson. Hit this one now if you agree.
Cowboys @ Giants
Open: Cowboys -9
Current: Cowboys -7
The favorites still have to win by more than TD for you to cash so don’t get excited if you are on the Cowboys side. They are attracting more 70% of the money meaning the wise guys think New York might rise up or at the very least keep it close. That is a big number for a home division dog, even with the movement. Very tempting.
