Caleb Wilfinger
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The Kansas City Chiefs are one of the best teams in the NFL once again and they will host the Los Angeles Chargers in an AFC West showdown on Sunday. Even with the Chargers’ struggles on Monday Night Football against the Cowboys, this team still always holds their own in Kansas City, and we might see that again on Sunday afternoon. I have put together a 3-leg Same Game Parlay that would bring a nice payout at +607 odds with FanDuel Sportsbook if it cashes.
You can check out the full game preview in our Week 7 NFL picks, but now let’s take a look at our Chargers vs Chiefs Same Game Parlay.
Chargers +5.5 (-110)
Over 47.5 (-110)
Isaiah Pacheco to score a touchdown (+100)
Same Game Parlay odds: +607
Chargers +5.5 (-110)
Based on their recent results and how the Chargers match up against Kansas City, there’s simply no way they can be near-touchdown underdogs – not even at Arrowhead. That’s especially true coming off another disappointing performance on Monday Night Football. There’s a case for backing Justin Herbert and company in this one, as the data suggests that Herbert thrives against the Chiefs. Over the last three seasons, Herbert has completed 69% of his passes for 917 yards with 10 touchdowns and just 1 interception against Kansas City. His left middle finger, which he broke in Week 5, should be further healed in this one, which gives me confidence in him as well.
Even though the Chargers are 1-3 in their last 4 games against Kansas City, they lost those games by an average margin of 4 points. In fact, last season’s 2 losses were only by a field goal each. At 2-3, the Bolts cannot afford to go 2-4 if they want to compete with the almighty Chiefs. While Patrick Mahomes is always dangerous at home, I expect the Chargers to play at their best on Sunday — as they almost always do against their rival.
Over 47.5 (-115)
This is a very sharp number, but it’s hard not to like the over in this one. The Chiefs’ defense, although still not an elite, has greatly improved this season. Their mark of 14.7 points allowed per game is 2nd best in the NFL, and a slew of other data points put KC in the league’s top ten. Now a seasoned Super Bowl-winning member of the franchise, defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is a big part of what’s made the Chiefs so unbeatable. Spry, young talent anchors an aggressive, fast defense. It’s worth noting, though, that besides Detroit in Week 1 the Chiefs haven’t faced a great offense yet. Perhaps due for regression, the Chargers present more game-changing talent than they’ve seen this year.
If Herbert has success, and we think he will (see why in the spread section of this preview), then Patrick Mahomes will have to match his pace. Unless you’ve been living under a rock for the last 7 years, I’m sure you realize that’s hardly a challenge for the former MVP. To no one’s surprise, the Chiefs are a top-ten offense with a potent passing attack, despite its carousel of talent. Their run game is improving every week, too.
Isaiah Pacheco to score a touchdown (+100)
Isaiah Pacheco has been fed consistently both on the ground and through the air, and that continued last week against the Broncos — when the Chiefs’ starting running back finished with 16 carries for 62 yards and an additional 6 catches for 36 yards. That should continue on Sunday, as Pacheco has found himself to be one of the only reliable weapons on a team that is searching for some sort of identity on offense. Outside of Travis Kelce, Mahomes seems to trust Pacheco the most — and that’s resulted in plenty of touches for the 3rd-year running back. The Chargers’ defense took some strides forward last week against Dallas, but this is still one of the lesser units in the NFL. In a game that should be fairly high scoring, I like Pacheco to find the end zone.
Our NFL Week 7 player prop picks include a selection for this game
