Caleb Wilfinger
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Week 17 was another eventful weekend of games across the NFL, and this week should be no different. This Saturday, we are getting back on the Same Game Parlay train, this time for a battle between the Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs. With kickoff set for 4:35 pm ET on ESPN, it’s time to forecast the action.
Here is our SGP, and also be sure to keep an eye on our NFL picks for every game this season!
Las Vegas Raiders +9.5 (-115)
Over 52.5 (+100)
Patrick Mahomes over 319.5 passing yards (-110)
Parlay odds: +420
Part of the value in Same Game Parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. However, it actually adds more value if you can predict the game script that both teams will want to play. Let’s break down each of these legs one by one.
Las Vegas Raiders +9.5 (-115)
While the Chiefs have the clear motivational edge, this is simply too many points in a matchup that is typically close. The Chiefs were 7.5-point favorites at home in this exact same matchup 12 weeks ago, which would imply around a field goal favorite on the road at Allegiant Stadium this weekend. With the number currently sitting at 9.5, that would imply that there is around a 6-point downgrade in the market from Derek Carr to Jarett Stidham, assuming all other variables between these teams are relatively equal since their last matchup. Considering how comfortable Stidham looked in Josh McDaniels’ offense a week ago, I think this number is a bit inflated, which makes sense considering the Chiefs need to win this game over an already eliminated team. Public perception says to take the Chiefs, but that’s not how these Week 18 games typically play out, so anything north of a touchdown with the Raiders has value in my book.
Be sure to check out our full Chiefs vs Raiders predictions
Over 52.5 (+100)
Totals in this series have typically been high, and for good reason. The over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these teams with an average combined score of a whopping 60.9 points in those games. Even with Stidham set to make his 2nd start of the season this week under center, I have full confidence in his ability to produce after he torched an elite 49ers defense a week ago. The Chiefs’ defense has been porous, allowing at least 24 points in 4 of their last 5 games. Assuming LAs Vegas can eclipse that mark this week, that means that this potent Kansas City offense only has to reach 28 points in order for this over to hit, which is below its season average of 29.1 points per game. I expect a great effort from Patrick Mahomes and company, and don’t be surprised if we hit 60 points once again in this series.
Patrick Mahomes over 319.5 passing yards (-110)
Our guy Jared Smith summed it up best in his Week 18 player props article: Patrick Mahomes has a lot to play for. Mahomes needs 430 yards on Saturday to pass Peyton Manning’s NFL single season passing record of 5,477, and he already averages over 320 yards per game against the Raiders in his career. This Las Vegas defense is not equipped for facing Kansas City’s electric passing offense, and Mahomes should have a field day throwing the football to the likes of Travis Kelce, Juju Smith-Schuster and more. Even with this number being larger than usual for Mahomes this season, I still find it hard to fathom that he won’t go all-out in an attempt to challenge Manning’s passing record.
Don’t miss Jared Smith’s best NFL Week 18 player prop bets
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