Andrew Ortenberg
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The NFL Week 5 Sunday action get started early with the Jacksonville Jaguars and Buffalo Bills facing off in London at 9:30 am ET, and what better way to celebrate the first game of the slate than by betting a Same Game Parlay? You can also read all our other NFL Week 5 picks here, but now let’s take a look at this SGP:
Jacksonville Jaguars -6.5 alternate spread (+460)
Trevor Lawrence to throw 3+ TD passes (+450)
Parlay odds: +1582
We have a 2-leg Same Game Parlay which pays out at north of 15/1 with FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s break it down.
Jacksonville Jaguars -6.5 alternate spread (+460)
This game has high variance for a few reasons, so I think an alternate spread makes a lot of sense to start this Same Game Parlay. We’ve got an unprecedented situation here as the Jaguars are playing in London for the second consecutive week. And since this has never been tested before, there’s a good chance they have a decided advantage. It might not mean much but it might mean a ton, which is why I think that if the Jaguars are going to pull the upset then they’ll likely do so comfortably. A lot of their players have talked to the media this week about how much having an extra week to acclimate to London has helped their bodies and preparation.
Speaking of variance, Josh Allen has had some high highs and low lows this season. We saw his floor in Week 1 when he had 4 turnovers in a loss to Zach Wilson and the Jets, and we saw his ceiling last week when he lit up the Dolphins. Buffalo was undeniably impressive in their win over Miami last week, but I think that the Dolphins being a bit overrated had a lot to do with that. Outside of that game, the Bills’ other wins this season have come against Washington’s Sam Howell and Jimmy Garoppolo of the Raiders.
Jacksonville got off to a bit of a sluggish start to the season, but looked good on both sides of the ball last week when allowing only 7 points in a win over Atlanta. The Jaguars absolutely dominated Desmond Ridder, picking him off twice and sacking him 4 times. Trevor Lawrence hasn’t been spectacular by any means, but he’s been far from the issue with the offense.
Trevor Lawrence to throw 3+ TD passes (+450)
All we need to cash this Same Game Parlay is one exceptional game from the former first overall pick, and we’re getting better than 15/1 odds on it. This correlates nicely with our first leg, since if the Jags are covering a -6.5 alt. spread it almost certainly means they had a big day through the air. They certainly aren’t going to run up the score on Buffalo on the back of Travis Etienne Jr. and his 3.8 yards per carry.
The Jags upgraded their group of weapons big time this offseason by bringing in Calvin Ridley, and he flashed his potential in his first game with his new team when he went off for 101 yards and a touchdown in Week 1. He’s been quieter since, but it’s only a matter of time before him and Lawrence get clicking again.
Lawrence has started a little slowly this year, but he threw at least 3 touchdown passes in 4 of his final 9 games to finish last season (including the playoffs), so I think this prop even has some standalone value at +450. Star Bills cornerback Tre’Davious White just got placed on injured reserve with an injury he picked up last week, which increases the ceiling of the Jags’ passing attack.
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a Same Game Parlay and where can I bet it?
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