Andrew Ortenberg
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Wild Card Weekend certainly didn’t disappoint, and now we are on to the divisional round. We have 4 more great games to look forward to, and this AFC clash between the Houston Texans and Baltimore Ravens will get things going on Saturday. Can CJ Stroud follow up on his spectacular playoff debut, or will Lamar Jackson cement his status as the league’s MVP?
There’s only one way to properly celebrate this playoff showdown, and that’s with a Same Game Parlay. Before we dive in, don’t forget to read all our other NFL playoff picks on sides and totals. But now let’s get right into this Texans vs Ravens SGP. I hit one last week at +1305 for Packers vs Cowboys, now let’s make it 2 weeks in a row with a big winner.
Lamar Jackson 275+ passing yards (+300)
CJ Stroud 250+ passing yards (+116)
Robert Woods 25+ receiving yards (+102)
Parlay odds: +1104
We have a 3-leg Same Game Parlay, which pays out just north of 11/1 with FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s break it down.
Lamar Jackson, QB, BAL 275+ passing yards (+300)
To start this Same Game Parlay I have Jackson’s alt passing yards. The likely MVP has a lot to prove in the postseason, as he has mostly been a disappointment in the playoffs thus far. But he’s really stepped it up as a passer this year, and the offense looks completely different under Todd Monken.
The Texans also boast one of the league’s best run defenses, so I think Baltimore will be passing it a bit more than usual. Houston is allowing just 3.5 yards per rush attempt this season, the second-best mark in the NFL. In their first playoff game against Cleveland, the Texans gave up just 56 rushing yards on 20 attempts.
Jackson has been so much better operating from the pocket this year, and in his last regular-season game he threw for 321 yards on only 21 attempts. Just a few weeks before that, he delivered 316 yards in a win over the Rams. Houston has a young secondary that can be beat, and Jackson has also been much more efficient as a passer at home this year.
In home games, Jackson is averaging 9.3 yards per pass attempt. On the road that number drops to just 6.9. He’ll be highly motivated to exorcise his playoff demons, so I think the Ravens will let Jackson keep passing deep into this game even if Baltimore is winning comfortably.
CJ Stroud, QB, HOU 250+ passing yards (+116)
For the next leg of our SGP I’m counting on a solid game from Stroud as well. The rookie has consistently passed every test he’s faced, and there’s no reason to believe the lights will be too bright for him here in the divisional round. Not after he just averaged 13 yards per attempt in the wild card round against a Cleveland defense that had arguably been the best in the league this year.
Including the playoffs, Stroud has gone over 250 yards in seven of his past nine games, so I really don’t see why we’re getting plus-money here. Especially not when the implied game-script (the Ravens are 9.5-point favorites) suggests that Houston will be throwing the ball a lot.
The second overall pick has now played in three games in a row that have been massive for the Texans’ season. And he’s completed at least 75 percent of his passes in all three of them. Because they rested starters in Week 18 and then had a bye in the first round of the playoffs, I think the Ravens could come out a bit slow-footed and rusty.
And Stroud will be able to take advantage. After all, in last week’s win over the Browns he threw a 75-yard touchdown bomb on his first pass attempt.
Robert Woods, WR, HOU 25+ receiving yards (+102)
To wrap up this SGP we have Woods getting to 25 yards. I think his chances of doing so are significantly higher here with Noah Brown now out again. Woods was quiet in the Wild Card Round with only 11 yards, but that’s because the Texans won by 31 and didn’t really pass the ball much in the second half.
It was also Woods’ first game back from an injury that had him sidelined in Week 18, and he should now be fully integrated now. In his last regular-season game before getting hurt, in the team’s pivotal matchup with the Titans, he had 58 yards. And he got at least 5 targets in each of his 2 previous games before that — so the volume is there.
Woods hit this number in 9 of his 13 regular-season games, so I’m jumping at the opportunity to get plus money.
