Andrew Ortenberg
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Wild card weekend certainly didn’t disappoint, and now we’re on to the divisional round. We’ve got four more great games to look forward to, and this NFC clash between the Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers will wrap things up on Saturday. Can Jordan Love and the Packers build off their stunning domination of the Cowboys, or will the 49ers take care of business as expected?
There’s only one way to properly celebrate this playoff showdown, and that’s with a Same Game Parlay. Before we dive in, don’t forget to read all our other NFL playoff picks on sides and totals. I hit one of these last week at +1305 for Packers vs Cowboys, now let’s make it two weeks in a row with a big Packers winner.
Green Bay Packers ML (+330)
Jordan Love 250+ passing yards (-114)
Aaron Jones 25+ receiving yards (+146)
Parlay odds: +1385
We have a 3-leg Same Game Parlay, which pays out just north of 13/1 with FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s break it down.
Green Bay Packers ML (+330)
To start this Same Game Parlay I have Green Bay straight up on the money line. Everyone counted the Packers out last week too, and then they dominated the Cowboys on their own turf. I think the Packers have the better quarterback in this game, so you certainly can’t write them off here.
Green Bay is humming on both sides of the ball and they’ve got a ton of momentum, while the 49ers’ starters haven’t played in three weeks since they sat out Week 18 before resting during the bye as well. The Packers have the offensive firepower to punish a slow start if San Francisco comes out rusty, as we saw last week when they jumped all over Dallas right out of the gates.
And I’m just not quite as scared of the 49ers as everyone else is. The only teams they’ve beaten since November 19th have been the Seahawks, Eagles, Cardinals, and Commanders. The only time they really got tested down the stretch was when they played the Ravens, and they got smoked at home on Christmas.
Green Bay’s defense was floundering for a while, but they’ve started to find their footing at the right time. They just embarrassed Dak Prescott last week, and in their final two regular season games they gave up only 19 total points.
Jordan Love 250+ passing yards (-114)
For the next leg of our SGP I’m counting on a solid game from Love as well. If the Packers are winning this game, I feel pretty good about Love’s chances of having another strong performance. They’re going to need to lean on their young quarterback if they want to win this game, and everything he’s shown recently indicates he’s up for the task.
Love had 272 yards in the wild card round, and he did it on only 21 attempts because Green Bay was winning by so much. In his final game of the regular season, he shredded a really strong Bears defense for 316 on just 32 attempts. Including the playoffs, Love has averaged at least 7.2 yards per pass attempt in 10 of his past 11 games.
He’s eclipsed the 250-yard mark in eight of his last 10, and the 49ers’ secondary certainly isn’t impenetrable. The Packers are overflowing with young pass-catchers, which brings us to the last leg of our SGP…
Aaron Jones 25+ receiving yards (+146)
To wrap this same game parlay up we have Jones getting to 25 receiving yards. Jones has completely taken over all the volume in this backfield in recent weeks, and he isn’t going to give up many touches even if AJ Dillon does play here. He wasn’t utilized as a receiver too much last week, but that’s because the Packers were dominating the Cowboys from the opening whistle.
And he still had a 13-yard reception despite that. In his last game of the regular season in a must-win game against Chicago, he had 5 catches for 30 yards. Jones also had at least four reception in five of his final eight regular season games, and some of those were when he was still splitting time more evenly with Dillon which isn’t the case anymore.
The last time Jones played in the playoffs before last week was against this same 49ers team two seasons ago, and he had nine catches for 129 yards in that one.
