Caleb Wilfinger
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Week 15 was another eventful weekend of games across the NFL, and this week should be no different. This Sunday, we are getting back on the Same Game Parlay train, this time for a battle between the Green Bay Packers vs Miami Dolphins. With kickoff set for 1:00 pm ET on FOX, it’s time to forecast the action.
Here is our SGP, and also be sure to keep an eye on our NFL picks for every game this season!
Green Bay Packers +3.5 (-110)
Over 49.5 points (-110)
Jaylen Waddle anytime touchdown scorer (+140)
Parlay odds: +696
Part of the value in Same Game Parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. However, it actually adds more value if you can predict the game script that both teams will want to play. Let’s break down each of these legs one by one.
Green Bay Packers +3.5 (-110)
Miami looked like the best team in the NFL through the first 12 weeks, but have since lost 3 games and have come crashing back down to earth with inconsistent performances on both sides of the ball. The Packers looked like a dead team walking after 12 weeks, but back-to-back wins and a relatively soft NFC underbelly have kept Green Bay’s slim playoff hopes alive. Aaron Rodgers is also starting to play like the 2-time MVP he is, with the Packers offense trending up. Since Week 10, Green Bay’s offense is 3rd in DVOA and rookie WR Christian Watson has had a breakthrough season. Rodgers’ thumb has looked much healthier after their bye week in Monday’s win over the Rams and the ground attack continues to be one of the best in football.
It remains to be seen if the short week has any impact on both teams. It also hasn’t been an easy stretch for the Dolphins in recent weeks. Miami is finally back at home after the snowy abyss of Buffalo and their offense continues to be one of the best in the NFL per most metrics. However, their defense is trending down, especially the secondary, which is one of the worst in the NFL in pass DVOA. The Dolphins are now catching this Packers offense at a really bad time when they are trending up. In this spot, it’s hard not to trust the more veteran team with a more veteran QB and coach to keep this within the number.
Be sure to check out our full Green Bay Packers vs Miami Dolphins predictions
Over 49.5 points (-110)
This should be a high-scoring game, even though Green Bay plays at the 2nd-slowest situation-neutral pace of any team in the NFL. The Dolphins like to play a little faster, ranked 10th in that category, but with the Packers’ running game being the more featured unit, the tempo could skew a bit on the slower side. All of those factors don’t necessarily lead to an over, but the personnel on both sides screams points.
Miami’s secondary has been absolutely torched against playoff-level competition this season, like last week against Josh Allen and the Bills. The Dolphins have also really struggled to defend RBs and TEs in the passing game, so it’s fair to expect big games from Aaron Jones and Robert Tonyan. The left side of the Packers offensive line (David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins) continues to miss time with various ailments, but they could return on Sunday. If one or both players are starting this week, then that’s a positive for the Green Bay offense and the hopes of this game going over the relatively high total.
Check out our best prop bets for Sunday Night Football!
Jaylen Waddle anytime touchdown scorer (+140)
The Dolphins are a threat to score any time they take the field considering the explosiveness of their offense. With that in mind, it’s hard not to back this plus-money option with Jaylen Waddle. Waddle caught a deep touchdown pass against the Bills last week and he’s shined against pedestrian secondaries this season. The young wideout is typically not marked by the opposing team’s best corner, so he should have chances to exploit Green Bay’s secondary throughout the game. He’s averaged 5 receptions a game and tallied 7 touchdowns on the season, so I think we’re getting solid value at this price in what should be a high-scoring affair.
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