Andrew Ortenberg
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We made it. The playoffs are officially here, and it’s going to be a great wild card weekend. Arguably the most highly anticipated matchup of the weekend is this NFC clash between the Dallas Cowboys and Green Bay Packers. Two of the NFL’s most storied franchises facing each other in the postseason, it doesn’t get much better than that.
There’s only one way to properly celebrate this playoff showdown, and that’s with a Same Game Parlay. Before we dive in, don’t forget to read all our other NFL playoff picks on sides and totals. But now let’s get right into this Packers vs Cowboys SGP.
Green Bay Packers ML (+265)
Luke Musgrave 40+ receiving yards (+390)
Parlay odds: +1305
We have a 2-leg Same Game Parlay, which pays out just north of 13/1 with FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s break it down.
Green Bay Packers ML (+265)
To start this Same Game Parlay I have the Packers straight up on the money line. Green Bay is playing some of their best ball of the season right now, and they’re peaking at the right time. Their defense was getting raked over the coals for a while, but they’ve stepped it up recently and have now given up only 19 total points across their last two games.
Last week with their season on the line, they dominated a Bears team that had been playing really well lately. They held Justin Fields to just 148 yards while containing him on the ground, and the pass-rush got going as well as they racked up five sacks on the day.
Jordan Love didn’t flinch in the biggest game of his life against a tough Chicago defense, averaging 9.9 yards per attempt while only throwing five incompletions all game. The Packers have now put up 33 points in two of their past three games, and both of those outbursts came against tough defenses.
Dallas on the other hand has been playing far from their best ball entering the playoffs, and they’re 2-2 in their past four. One of the wins in that span was by just one point against the Lions on a controversial call, and the other was against the Commanders so it doesn’t really count.
That game against a barely-there Washington team was the only time in the past month that the Cowboys have scored more than 20 points. Even including a game they blew against the Giants, the Packers are still 6-2 in their past 8 contests.
Luke Musgrave 40+ receiving yards (+390)
For the next and final leg of our SGP I’m counting on a big game from Musgrave. The rookie tight end looked like a stud in the making before going down with a lacerated kidney that cost him 6 games. Everyone seems to have forgotten about him because of the injury, and I think oddsmakers are severely underestimating him here.
Musgrave returned last week against Chicago, but the team eased him in and he played sparingly. The Oregon State product told reporters this week he expects his role to expand back to what it was pre-injury in the playoffs, and he’ll have a very good chance of getting to 40 yards if that’s the case.
In his last two full games before suffering the injury, Musgrave put up 51 and 64 yards. He’s only played nine full games this year, and he’s eclipsed 40 yards in four of them, so I think getting +390 has some standalone value here as well. Especially considering that the Cowboys’ defense is vulnerable over the middle.
And with Dallas’ ferocious pass-rush likely to be bearing down, I’m expecting some quick dump-offs from Love to the tight ends.
