Week 5 has come and gone, and we’re starting to see the pretenders and contenders show their colors. Some names like Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey have shot up the list, while players like Justin Jefferson and Lamar Jackson have slipped. So, let’s take a look at the current standings for the MVP, Defensive Player of the Year and Offensive Player of the Year with my best bet for each market ahead of Week 6.
NFL Most Valuable Player
The favorites for this award have stayed the same since Week 1, but there are a few new names near the top of the chart this week.
NFL MVP Odds
Patrick Mahomes +350
Tua Tagovailoa +500
Josh Allen +600
Jalen Hurts +600
Brock Purdy +700
Christian McCaffrey +1200
Justin Herbert +1600
Lamar Jackson +1800
Trevor Lawrence +2000
NFL MVP Best Bet: Brock Purdy (+700)
Following Week 4, I mentioned how Purdy at +2200 was exceptional value and that I expected his odds to only get shorter in the next few weeks. Fast forward 2 weeks and Purdy now has +700 odds to win MVP — a drastic difference from where he was at the end of September. I already locked in Purdy at +2200, and if you haven’t already, I would now. Also, McCaffrey could be worth a look this week. The MVP award has a common theme of only being quarterbacks and fans have jokingly said how the award should be changed to the quarterback award, but for the first time all season, we have a non-QB in the category. Honestly, it’s surprising it took 5 weeks for McCaffrey to join the conversion. He has been the most dangerous offensive threat in football this season and deserves to be a legitimate candidate for this award.
NFL Defensive Player of the Year
The race for the Defensive Player of the Year remains a 3-man battle for now, but there are still plenty of quality picks with excellent value in the hunt.
NFL DPOY Odds
Micah Parsons +200
Myles Garrett +275
T.J. Watt +350
Aidan Hutchinson +1400
Nick Bosa +1800
Maxx Crosby +2000
Chris Jones +3000
Fred Warner +3000
Aaron Donald +5000
NFL DPOY Best Bet: Nick Bosa (+1800)
Former Defensive Rookie of the Year winner Micah Parsons remains at the top of the list heading into Week 6. Parsons is still the face of the Dallas defense, but he might have to do even more now that Trevon Diggs tore his ACL last week. The Cowboys’ D no longer has the scare factor that it did in the first few weeks of the season following the 49ers bashing of the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football, but Parsons is still an elite pass rusher who will keep his team in it. As for my best bet, I have to take the value in Nick Bosa. Being on an elite team usually helps a player’s case for an award, and that’s been the story for Purdy and McCaffrey in the MVP vote. If the Niners keep winning and Bosa continues to rack up the sacks, he has an excellent chance to join the conversation in the next few weeks.
NFL Offensive Player of the Year
An untimely injury for Jefferson has caused his odds to take a hit, but he remains with the third-shortest odds to win the award heading into Week 6.
NFL OPOY Odds
Christian McCaffrey +175
Tyreek Hill +300
Justin Jefferson +950
Jalen Hurts +2200
Ja’Marr Chase +2500
Lamar Jackson +2500
Stefon Diggs +2500
Josh Allen +3500
Davante Adams +3500
NFL OPOY Best Bet: Christian McCaffrey (+175)
Jefferson opened the season as the favorite to win the award, and his odds were close to McCaffrey’s just a few weeks ago, but a hamstring injury will sideline Jefferson for at least four games. That will hurt his campaign for the Offensive Player of the Year, especially if McCaffrey and Tyreek Hill continue to have career seasons. For my best bet, it’s not the most value-based bet but it is the most logical. McCaffrey has been so good this season that his name has officially been thrown around in the MVP conversation. When that happens, it essentially means that he is the best non-QB in football. And based on how he’s done this season, it makes a lot of sense!
