Week 3 has come and gone, and we’re starting to see the pretenders and contenders show their colors. Tua Tagovailoa and Mike McDaniel’s odds have shortened in their respective categories while players like Dak Prescott and Trevor Lawrence saw their odds soar after a bad Week 3 loss. So, let’s take a look at the current standings for the MVP, Comeback Player of the Year and Coach of the Year with my best bet for each market ahead of Week 4.
NFL Most Valuable Player
It’s nearly the same quarterbacks from Week 3 with a minor shift in odds. Most notably, Tua Tagovailoa became an ever bigger favorite while Dak Prescott dropped to the bottom of the list.
NFL MVP Odds
Tua Tagovailoa +350
Patrick Mahomes +500
Josh Allen +700
Jalen Hurts +800
Justin Herbert +1300
Lamar Jackson +1400
Trevor Lawrence +2000
Joe Burrow +2000
Brock Purdy +2200
Dak Prescott +2500
NFL MVP Best Bet: Brock Purdy (+2200)
Following Miami’s 50-point thrashing of the Broncos on Sunday, Tua Tagovailoa has surged to the forefront of the MVP vote. Tagovailoa was +550 to win MVP last week and has seen his odds shorten to +350, but in my opinion, I would wait on pulling the trigger on the lefty QB1. The Fins take on the Bills in Buffalo this week for their toughest test yet, so don’t expect another Tagovailoa masterclass this Sunday. I would expect his odds to be +400 to +500 after Miami’s Week 4 game.
Last week, my best MVP bet heading into Week 3 was Jalen Hurts. Philadelphia’s QB1 led the team to another win which means they are one of the only teams to start 3-0. Since then, Hurts’ odds have shortened from +900 to +800. I’m still backing Hurts until the Eagles lose because his odds should only get shorter and shorter. However, if you’re looking for a different route, Brock Purdy at +2200 is excellent value for a quarterback who has been one of the most accurate and efficient quarterbacks in football this season. If the 49ers continue to win, his odds will only get shorter and shorter. I wouldn’t be surprised if his odds were below +2000 after Week 4 since the Niners play the Cardinals.
NFL Comeback Player of the Year
NFL CPOY Odds
The same few players remain at the top of the list, and it appears like this award will be a 3-man race between Damar Hamlin, Tua Tagovailoa and T.J. Watt.
Damar Hamlin -120
Tua Tagovailoa +165
T.J. Watt +1300
Lamar Jackson +1900
Matthew Stafford +2000
Joshua Dobbs +2500
Calvin Ridley +2900
Baker Mayfield +3700
Breece Hall +4000
NFL CPOY Best Bet: T.J. Watt (+1300)
Coming into the season, Damar Hamlin was the clear favorite for the Comeback Player of the Year award. And how could he not? He suffered a cardiac arrest on the field and was brought back to life by Buffalo’s medical staff. As long as Hamlin touched the field this season, it seemed he was a guarantee for the award. However, that might be the problem. Hamlin has been a healthy scratch in Weeks 1, 2 and 3. The question becomes, will Hamlin play at all this season? If he does, he is very likely going to get the award.
Can a player win the MVP and the Comeback Player of the Year award in the same season? It’s unlikely, but Tagovailoa has made it a possibility. He has the 2nd-shortest odds to win the award, but I’m skipping Miami’s QB1 and looking at T.J. Watt. In just 3 games, Watt has 6.0 sacks, 2 pass deflections, 2 forced fumbles, 2 fumble recoveries, 9 solo tackles and 5 tackles for a loss. If that sounds crazy, it’s because it is. He already has more sacks in 3 games than he did in 10 games last season. Watt is one of the best defensive players in football, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him take home this award after tearing his pec last season.
NFL Coach of the Year
NFL COY Odds
It’s not often a team wins by 50 points, but when they do, the coach gets a lot of recognition. That’s the case here as Mike McDaniel’s odds have drastically changed following Miami’s Week 3 win.
Mike McDaniel +360
Dan Campbell +700
Matt LaFleur +1000
Shane Steichen +1300
Arthur Smith +1400
Kyle Shanahan +1600
Mike Tomlin +1900
Kevin Stefanski +2000
DeMeco Ryans +2000
NFL COY Best Bet: Mike McDaniel (+360)
The Coach of the Year award has taken a drastic turn after Week 3. Before Week 1, the frontrunners for the award were Dan Campbell, Arthur Smith and Matt LaFleur. Campbell was the heavy favorite in the preseason and his odds shrunk after the Lions beat the Chiefs in Week 1. However, just a few weeks later, there is a new favorite. Mike McDaniel has led the Dolphins to a perfect 3-0 record which was capped off by the Dolphins scoring 70 points against the Broncos. If the Fins continue to win games, McDaniel will continue to be the favorite. I think if Miami wins 10+ games, and far more likely if they win the AFC East, McDaniel will win the award. For that reason, he’s my pick after Week 3.
